El Niño threatens Asian harvest and raises food concerns

Drought is hampering crop planting across Asia, raising concerns about food supplies in the world's most populous region, and a strong El Niño forecast could cause even more damage.

From the grain-producing plains of northwest India to the wheat belt of eastern Australia, and from the rice fields of Thailand to the vast palm oil plantations of Indonesia, hot weather and below-average rainfall are damaging harvests and forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said.

The drought caused by El Niño is a double blow for farmers already facing fertilizer and diesel shortages due to the war with Iran.

Wheat prices (Wv1) have risen about 20% since the beginning of 2026, mainly due to drought concerns in key US producing regions. Rice prices in Southeast Asia's main export hubs have risen around 15% in the last month due to rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.

One of the most intense El Niños on record is expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot, dry weather to Asia and excessive rainfall to the Americas, with global climate change worsening the situation.

"El Niño's global impact begins in Southeast Asia, India and Australia, before having broader implications in North and South America," said Chris Hyde, meteorologist at SkyFi, a US-based satellite data and imagery company. Hyde said the first signs of drought are already visible on the company's high-resolution imaging platform in parts of Asia.

Hot and dry climate

In India, the meteorology department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which accounts for about 70% of annual rainfall.

"With temperatures in most parts of the country remaining well above normal, current conditions are unfavorable for timely planting of summer crops," said a trader with a New Delhi-based global trading firm.

"Planting will likely be delayed due to the late onset of the monsoon, but the biggest concern lies in the possibility of below-average rainfall and prolonged dry periods after its arrival."

India mainly grows rice, soybeans, pulses, sugarcane and corn during the summer.

In Southeast Asian countries, drought is affecting rice and palm oil harvests in some areas.

"Everyone is worried (about the drought), it's risky," said Nerawat Oramah, a 47-year-old farmer from Chainat province in central Thailand.

"For my second harvest, I have to wait and see what the situation will be like. It's a risk for everyone (if there is not enough water), there will only be one harvest."

Thailand and the Philippines plant their main rice crops in June and July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are sowing their second season crops.

"Thailand and the Philippines plant their main rice crops in June and July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are sowing their second season crops." The island of Java, Indonesia's most populous, and some areas in north Sumatra, south Kalimantan and Sulawesi have not recorded rain for more than 10 days, according to the country's meteorological agency, with medium to low intensity rain forecast in June.

Higher prices

Rice prices are rising even as India, responsible for 40% of global exports, has ample stocks after years of near-record harvests.

"There is a clear indication of crisis as rice prices have risen substantially without there being any major shortages," said a trader with a Singapore-based international trading company, adding that Thai rice prices have risen by about 15% in the last month.

"India has a huge stockpile of rice, several times larger than required. But the expectation is that India will soon begin to consider these stocks as a crucial asset and may impose some type of restriction on exports if there are problems at the start of the monsoon season."

However, KKP Research, a unit of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank in Thailand, said some of the impact of the drought could be mitigated by high reservoir levels.

"What concerns us most is the supply of fertilizers," the bank said in a note to Reuters. "We estimate that a fertilizer shortage, if it occurs, could reduce rice production by up to 15-20% in a worst-case scenario."

Recent rains on parched Australian farmland have allowed late planting of wheat, but farmers are wary of El Niño in the coming months, which could affect yields.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts that many growing areas in New South Wales and Queensland will receive between 20 and 40 millimeters less rain than normal over the next three months.

John Lowe, a farmer near Burcher in central New South Wales, said his total area under cultivation is still about 30% smaller than it could be.

El Niño is likely to have a neutral effect on China and the Black Sea region, while bringing more rain to the Americas.

"Statistically speaking, there isn't much correlation between U.S. weather and El Niño during the summer," said Drew Lerner, agricultural meteorologist and president of World Weather Inc.

"In many years, we may have a little more moisture during the summer with El Niño. But that doesn't necessarily mean above-average rainfall."

Climate and degradation redesign profits in agriculture and drive integration

Source: CNN