El Niño could benefit crops in Brazil and Argentina, says report
El Niño forecasts are changing field production
El Niño forecasts are changing field production
El Niño could bring unusual relief to parts of Latin America. Brazil and Argentina are among the countries least exposed to the rise in food prices caused by the phenomenon and may even benefit from better conditions for crops, according to Oxford Economics.
El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by the warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, which alters weather patterns around the world. It can cause droughts in some grain-producing regions and more intense rains in others.
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In a report that analyzes risks in 20 emerging markets, Oxford classified South America as the least vulnerable region. Brazil and Argentina appear as the "least exposed" countries and with the greatest chance of benefiting from more favorable conditions for crops such as corn and soybeans.
According to Oxford, the main risk for Latin America is not the general lack of grains, but specific increases in the prices of fresh food.
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More intense rains could favor grain production in parts of Brazil and Argentina. On the other hand, floods can interrupt the supply of vegetables, tubers, fruits and fish. Peru is one of the most exposed countries, due to the possible drop in fishing activity.
These price variations can be intense, according to Oxford, but they tend to be temporary. In general, central banks treat these movements as one-offs rather than persistent inflation risks.
Source: G1