Dollar fluctuates, with an eye on employment data; Ibovespa falls

Understand what makes the price of the dollar rise or fall
The dollar fluctuated between highs and lows this Friday (26), and had a drop of 0.11% around 10:30 am, quoted at R$5.1717. Ibovespa, the main index on the Brazilian stock exchange, fell 0.35% at the same time, to 171,388 points.
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▶ The new labor market data for May are the highlight of this Friday's session. After the preview of Brazilian inflation indicated a new rise in prices in June, new data from Pnad indicated a slight slowdown in the unemployment rate, from 5.8% to 5.6%.
The indicator reinforces the perspective of still strong economic activity and brings more clues about what the Central Bank's (BC) next steps should be in managing interest rates.
▶ In the stock market, the technology sector remains in the spotlight. Global stock markets have been penalized by the widespread fall in shares in the sector, amid doubts about the return capacity of these companies and in the face of high spending on artificial intelligence.
See below for more details on the day in the market.
Dollar

a
Accumulated for the week: +0.71%;
Accumulated for the month: +3.16%;
Accumulated for the year: -5.23%.
Ibovespa

Accumulated for the week: +1.29%;
Accumulated for the month: --1.89%;
Accumulated for the year: +5.82%.
Inflation in Brazil and the USA
IPCA-15
The Broad National Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), considered a preview of the country's official inflation, rose 0.41% in June. As a result, inflation accumulated in 12 months reached 4.80%.
The indicator remains above the target ceiling defined by the National Monetary Council. For 2026, the central inflation target is 3%, with a maximum limit of 4.5%.
Among the nine groups of products and services surveyed, Food and beverage prices rose 0.74% in the month and had the biggest impact on inflation, while the Housing group increased 0.72%. Together, these two groups explain around two thirds of the rise in inflation in the period.
Lucas Barbosa, economist at AZ Quest, highlights that the rise in food was driven mainly by meat, bread and other baked goods, milk and dairy products and, above all, fruits and vegetables. Economist, the movement still reflects factors linked to supply and demand, in addition to specific climate problems that especially affect the production of fruits and vegetables.
In the case of meat, he states that the increase in exports to China has also contributed to putting pressure on prices in the short term.
See more in the report below:
Inflation preview rises 0.62% in May, driven by food and electricity bills
American inflation
In the USA, the personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE), a measure of inflation closely monitored by the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank American, increased 4.1% in May, in line with market expectations. It was the first time in three years that the indicator surpassed the 4% mark.
When disregarding food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, inflation stood at 3.4% in the 12-month period, above the 3.3% recorded in April. In the monthly comparison, the core indicator increased 0.3%, repeating the previous month's result.
"We believe that inflation remains high at this moment, although it may gradually decelerate over time", says Michele Morganti, senior equity strategist at Generali Investments.
The increase in inflation occurs amid the rise in energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East and reinforces the American central bank's attention to price developments. The Fed's inflation target is 2%.
Last week, the monetary authority maintained interest rates between 3.5% and 3.75%, but signaled that further increases may be necessary if inflationary pressures persist.
On the other hand, the recent drop in oil prices and data that point to a still resilient economy fuel the expectation that inflation could lose strength in the coming months without the need for more intense increases in interest rates.
Revised data released This Thursday also showed that the US economy grew 2.1% in the first quarter, above the previous estimate of 1.6%.
In light of this, Morganti adds that there is still a risk that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates later this year.
Global markets
In Asia, the region's stock markets had a widespread fall this Friday, driven by the wave of sales in the technology sector.
The CSI 300, which brings together the largest companies in Shanghai and Shenzen, fell 3.03%. The Shanghai index, the SSEC, closed down 2.26%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index lost 1.76%, while Japan's Nikkei fell 4.15% and South Korea's Kospi fell 5.81%.
*With information from the news agency Reuters.
Dollar banknotes
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Source: G1