Cold weather affects agricultural production and makes food more expensive
The arrival of lower temperatures changes the seasonality of agricultural production and contributes to the rise in vegetable prices, which led food increases in May, putting pressure on consumer pockets across the country.
According to the study "Price Variations: Brazil & Regions", carried out by Neogrid, a data intelligence company, the vegetables category increased 15.1% compared to April.
The average price of the category went from R$6.89 to R$7.93 in the period, with increases recorded in all regions of Brazil.
According to Marcelo Alves, Executive Data Manager at Neogrid, the movement is directly related to supply conditions and the weather: "The categories most under pressure in May are precisely those most sensitive to supply and weather conditions. In colder seasons, productivity and the pace of maturation of some products may be affected, reducing availability and increasing consumer prices", he states.
"The scenario also draws attention to the importance of intelligent supply in periods of greater volatility. In climate-sensitive categories, such as fruit and vegetables, the combination of demand predictability and greater visibility of stocks contributes to more assertive replenishment decisions, reducing stockouts and waste throughout the consumption chain.", adds Alves.
Other highs
Among the other items analyzed by Neogrid, powdered milk increased by 9%, with the average price varying from R$40.47 to R$44.10. Beans increased by 5%, while tomato sauce and mineral water increased by 3.3% and 3.5%, respectively.
Main falls
In the opposite direction, some categories brought relief to consumers. Eggs fell 6.5%, with the price per unit shrinking from R$0.97 to R$0.90. Dry pasta fell 3%, while coffee powder and beans fell 2.5%. There was also a drop in pork (-1.4%), sugar (-1.1%) and soybean oil (-0.9%), the latter being the only item with a price reduction in all regions of the country.
Accumulated pressure in the year
In the accumulated period between December 2025 and May 2026, vegetables continue to lead the biggest increases in food retail, with an appreciation of 44.2%, going from R$5.50 to R$7.93. Next come beans (26.5%), UHT milk (23.9%), beef (6%) and eggs (6%).
"For the coming months, we will continue to monitor the behavior of the climate, especially given the projections related to El Niño. If the phenomenon is consolidated, changes in the rainfall regime and temperatures could generate new impacts on agricultural production and increase volatility in categories such as fruit and dairy products, which will require a consumption chain that is better supplied and prepared for eventualities", adds Alves.
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Source: CNN