Cocoa closes in decline in NY with demand pressure and high stocks

Cocoa futures fell in this Thursday's session (04) on the New York Stock Exchange. The contract for delivery in July closed down 2.63%, quoted at US$3,965 per ton.

The pressure on prices comes amid concerns about global demand for chocolate. Barry Callebaut, one of the largest manufacturers in the sector in the world, revised its projections and indicated a slower recovery in sales volumes than previously expected, which increased negative sentiment in the market.

Barchart highlighted that the increase in stocks contributes to pressure on prices. Cocoa volumes stored at ICE reached the highest level in around 1.75 years, totaling 2,913,278 bags last Wednesday.

Despite the recent drop, the market still monitors climate risks. The possible formation of the El Niño phenomenon could bring hotter and drier conditions to West Africa, an important region for global cocoa production, which could impact supply in the medium term.

According to NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), there is an 82% chance of El Niño forming by July, with a 67% chance of a more intense event, classified as "Super El Niño", lasting until the end of the year.

Coffee

The future maturity for delivery in July of Arabica coffee registered a drop of 2.35% and ended the day quoted at US$ 2,471.50 per pound.

Barchart pointed out that coffee prices extended the week's losses, with arabica falling to a 19-month low and Robusta reaching its lowest level in seven weeks.

The pressure on prices is linked to the expectation of a record harvest in Brazil. The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (United States Department of Agriculture) projected production of 71.9 million bags in 2026/27, an increase of 14% compared to the previous cycle.

In addition, Rabobank raised its estimate for the global surplus of Arabica coffee in 2026/27, from 7 million to 9.5 million bags, reinforcing the perception of more abundant supply in the global market.

Orange juice The future expiration date for orange juice for delivery in July ended the session without change and continued to be traded at US$ 1,684.00 per ton.

Sugar

In the case of sugar, futures prices ended the session with a slight increase on the New York Stock Exchange. The contract for delivery in July registered an increase of 0.21% and closed at US$ 14.27 per pound.

Prices fell at the beginning of the session, but recovered throughout the day, supported by the weakness of the dollar, which encouraged covering short positions in the futures market.

Barchart pointed out that the initial pressure came from the drop of around 3% in crude oil, which directly influences the sugar-energy sector, as it could make ethanol production less attractive and lead mills to direct more cane to sugar, increasing global supply.

Cotton

Cotton futures prices for delivery in July closed slightly down 2.51%, quoted at US$74.89 per pound.

The USDA export sales report, released last Thursday, showed the sale of 185,268 thousand bales of the 2025/26 harvest in the week of 05/28, the highest volume in seven weeks. Sales of the new harvest totaled 77,145 thousand bales, the lowest volume in three weeks.

Shipments reached 268,799 thousand bales, the lowest level in 14 weeks, indicating a slowdown in the pace of exports.

Is coffee the new cocoa? Some expect the price to drop too

Source: CNN