Certified soy can generate up to R$5.6 billion per year and expand markets

The certification of low-carbon soybeans can open a new front of appreciation for the Brazilian production chain, with the potential to generate up to R$5.6 billion annually in value associated with carbon by 2035, in addition to guaranteeing access to more demanding markets and improving producers' profitability. The assessment is included in a study by the consultancy L.E.K. Consulting released in June 2026.

According to the survey, the main gain from certification is not in the sale of carbon credits, but in the combination of premiums paid for certified soy, reduced production costs and greater access to global buyers interested in sustainable chains. The estimate is that the PSBC (Low Carbon Soy Program) could add around R$560 per hectare to the producer's profitability.

The study projects that, in the base scenario, around 31% of the area cultivated with soybeans in Brazil should be certified by 2035, equivalent to approximately 17 million hectares.

In this case, the climate impact would reach 23 million tons of CO₂ equivalent per year, reaching 57 million tons if the potential for carbon sequestration in the soil identified by Embrapa is considered.

Eric Emiliano, partner at LEK Consulting, highlights that the main role of certification is to provide a robust technical basis for measuring emissions. "The greatest value of certification is precisely in creating the scientific basis. This brings credibility and auditable data to support a market that should consolidate in the medium and long term", he told CNN Brasil.

Regarding the potential for generating carbon credits, the expert's projection is significant. "We have a proprietary methodology that indicates that, in the next ten years, around 30% of the area cultivated with soybeans in Brazil could be certified, the equivalent of approximately 17 million hectares", he highlighted.

In financial terms, the market could move billions of reais. "With a price of R$100 per ton of carbon, we would be talking about a value generation of between R$2 billion and R$3 billion per year. In more ambitious scenarios, with prices close to those practiced in Europe, this value could reach R$5 billion annually", highlighted Emiliano.

The certification was developed by Embrapa Soja and is based on an MRV (measurement, reporting and verification) protocol, which compares the environmental performance of crops with production systems typical of each soy-growing region.

The first certifications are scheduled to take place in 2026, after the program is registered with the Ministry of Agriculture and the accreditation of independent certifiers.

The positive expectation is related to the wide adoption of the practices required by certification. "We strongly believe in this potential because Embrapa's mandatory protocols, such as biological nitrogen fixation through co-inoculation and direct planting, are already widely used by soybean producers. This favors the adoption of certification in the coming years", explained the expert.

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Premium market and new opportunities
The study points out that certification can become a competitive differentiator for Brazilian soy in markets such as the European Union and Asia, where demand for traceable raw materials with a lower carbon footprint is growing.

Trading companies and processors will be able to obtain premiums on certified soy and increase participation in global chains aimed at decarbonization.

In addition, certification creates opportunities for the development of green financial products, such as rural credit, insurance and bonds linked to sustainable practices. Cooperatives must also play a strategic role in bringing together producers and diluting audit and certification costs.

For the expert, the benefits go beyond rural properties and reach the entire agribusiness chain. "We do not see this as a regulatory cost, but as a vector of demand for Brazilian soy, expanding markets and commercialization opportunities."

"The input industry can benefit from higher value-added products, such as biofertilizers, biologicals and inoculants. Machine manufacturers tend to incorporate more technology and precision agriculture to meet new protocols", he explained.

Brazilian technologies reduce emissions
The low carbon footprint of national soybeans is strongly linked to FBN (biological nitrogen fixation), a technology responsible for 92% of the reduction in emissions already achieved by the crop.

According to the analysis, without the technologies currently used in the country, the carbon footprint of soy would exceed 1.7 tons of CO₂ equivalent per ton produced. With prevailing practices today, this indicator drops by around 83%, and the low-carbon soy system reduces an additional 30%.

Among the mandatory practices to obtain the seal are well-managed direct planting and biological nitrogen fixation. The protocol also encourages complementary actions such as ILPF (crop-livestock-forest integration), use of bio-inputs, precision agriculture, integrated pest management and recovery of degraded areas.

Profitability amid the margin crisis
Certification comes at a time of economic pressure on producers. The study highlights that soybean margins in Mato Grosso became negative between 2023 and 2025 due to rising costs and falling prices. In this scenario, the estimated gain of R$560 per hectare provided by the PSBC could transform a negative margin of R$404 per hectare into a positive result of R$156 per hectare in 2025.

For L.E.K., the low carbon agenda should benefit not only producers, but the entire agro-industrial chain, boosting demand for bioinputs, precision agriculture, green credit and sustainable raw materials for the food and biofuels sectors.

Emiliano states that carbon monetization could have helped to alleviate the difficulties faced by producers in recent years. "If we already had a consolidated market today to remunerate farmers through carbon credits, states like Mato Grosso would have recorded much greater profitability in the last three years, a period marked by tight margins and high default rates", he concluded.

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Source: CNN