By Lucinda Pinto: Pressure with tariffs is what worries Brazil
The proposal for new tariffs from the United States on Brazilian products generated debate about their economic and political impacts. For Lucinda Pinto, an analyst at CNN Money, the exceptions foreseen by the American government indicate that the effects on the Brazilian trade balance tend to be limited.
Among the products excluded from taxation are beef, aircraft parts, coffee, fruits, nuts, spices, petroleum and metallic minerals. According to the analyst, the exclusion of these items significantly reduces the potential impact of the measure.
"Beef is super important in our commercial relationship with the United States, and we help supply the American market", highlighted Lucinda.
The analyst also recalls that the Brazilian airline industry maintains strong integration with the American one through Embraer, which helps explain the removal of aeronautical parts from the list of products subject to tariffs.
Lucinda also notes that steel, another relevant item on the Brazilian export agenda, is already subject to previous tariffs and, therefore, is not affected by the new proposal. "From a trade balance point of view, this effect will be small", he states.
Although she recognizes that the sectors directly affected will feel the effects of the measure, the analyst assesses that this is not a significant macroeconomic impact.
In Lucinda's assessment, the American proposal appears to function more as an instrument of pressure than as a traditional commercial protection measure. "What seems more like a bargaining chip to achieve other goals", he assesses.
According to her, the American government's interest would be more focused on issues related to payment methods, technology and digital services than on the defense of specific productive sectors.
The analyst also highlighted that the United States government has avoided including in taxation products capable of putting pressure on domestic inflation, at a time when American consumer confidence is already showing signs of weakening.
"It is curious to note that the American government is once again using this threat of taxation, but is not including those items that could weigh more heavily on Americans' pockets", says Lucinda.
In addition to the economic implications, the analyst drew attention to the political dimension of the episode, especially in an election year in Brazil.
According to her, the Brazilian government has sought to attribute part of the responsibility for the situation to Flávio Bolsonaro, arguing that the classification of criminal organizations as terrorist groups by the American government could represent a threat to Pix.
On the other hand, Flávio Bolsonaro has presented himself as a defender of the reversal of the measures with the American authorities. "If there is a setback, he will still gain this merit", he analyzes.
Lucinda also warned of the risk of negotiations being conducted under the strong influence of the electoral calendar.
"There is a fear that the issue will end up being handled in a way with so much concern about the election that people will end up putting their foot in the negotiation process", he says.
In relation to financial markets, the analyst considers that the tariff proposal, in itself, should not cause relevant direct effects on assets.
According to her, investors remain more attentive to the rise in oil prices, the possible impacts on inflation and the prospects for Brazilian monetary policy.
"Increasingly, the market has seen that the space for a Selic cut below 14% is very small", concludes the analyst.
Beer, fruit and TVs: what should become more expensive in the US after tariffs
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Source: CNN