Brazilian meatpackers target the US with China quota close to the limit

The approaching exhaustion of China's beef import quota has led Brazilian slaughterhouses to redesign their export strategy. With the expectation that the limit of around 1.1 million tons will be reached by the end of July, the market is already looking for alternative destinations to maintain the pace of shipments.

In Genial Investimentos' assessment, the United States appears as one of the main alternatives to absorb part of the meat that will no longer be sent to China.

In addition to expanding direct sales to the United States, Brazil can also benefit from an indirect movement in international trade.

According to Genial Investimentos analyst Luca Vello, Brazilian meat can supply the American market, while the United States directs a greater portion of its own production to other buyers, such as China.

"The United States is experiencing the smallest cattle herd in the last 75 years. As the cost of raw materials is high, it makes sense to import Brazilian meat to meet domestic consumption. This opens up space for part of the American production to be destined for other markets", he states.

Vello assesses that this type of commercial rearrangement has already been observed on other occasions and could occur again if Chinese demand remains strong. "Whenever there is financial rationale, companies will seek this type of movement", he highlights.

"For American importers, it makes sense to buy Brazilian meat because the cost of cattle in the United States is very high", says the analyst.

Data from Comex Stat show that the United States has been increasing purchases of Brazilian beef this year. Between January and May, the country accounted for 13.4% of revenue from Brazilian exports of the product; revenue totaled US$1.2 billion. The value represents a growth of 36% compared to the same period in 2025.

For comparison purposes, in the entire year 2025, the United States accounted for 7.3% of revenue from Brazilian beef exports, with revenues of US$973.4 million.

Although the North American market remunerates some cuts at lower prices than those practiced in China, it continues to be considered a premium destination and capable of absorbing part of Brazilian production.

Given this scenario, companies with operations in other South American countries must use their plants abroad to continue supplying the Chinese market.

Genial Investimentos also highlighted that this is the case of Minerva, which has units in Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay, and can redirect part of its exports through these origins.

"The company has a much greater reach in South America and is able to reallocate part of the volume that would leave Brazil to other origins", explains Vello.

Research: Brazilians should continue to consume beef

Source: CNN