Brazil projects a drop of up to 92.6% in livestock emissions by 2050

Brazil presented at the headquarters of the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), in Rome, a detailed scientific study that projects a reduction of up to 92.6% in the intensity of emissions from beef cattle farming by 2050.

The work "Decarbonization Trajectories of Beef Livestock in Brazil 2025 to 2050" was developed by FGV Agro in partnership with ABIEC (Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries) and presented by ApexBrasil during the Fourth Session of the Livestock Subcommittee of COAG (UN Agriculture Committee).

The presentation took place at a moment considered strategic for the global climate debate, in which the agricultural sector is under pressure to increase food production while reducing environmental impacts.

In front of international delegations and FAO experts, the study was presented as a response based on tropical science and technology, with a focus on demonstrating that Brazil can expand the global supply of beef with lower emissions intensity.

The director of Animal Production and Health and Assistant Director-General of FAO, Thanawat Tiensin, highlighted the need for international cooperation.

He stated that the transformation of sustainable livestock farming depends on a joint effort between governments, producers, the private sector, academia and research institutions, highlighting that each country needs to find its own path within the 2030 Agenda.

The study presented details decarbonization scenarios that indicate that Brazil can reduce not only the intensity, but also part of the absolute emissions from livestock farming over the next few decades.

In the reference scenario, emissions could fall by up to 60% by 2050, while the carbon intensity of beef would decline by around 80%, from approximately 80 kilograms of CO₂ equivalent per kilogram of meat to around 16 kilograms.

In the most ambitious scenario, with greater adoption of technologies and expansion of the ABC+ Plan, the reduction in intensity would reach 92.6%, reaching around 5 kilograms of CO₂ equivalent per kilogram of meat produced.

According to FGV Agro researcher, Camila Estevam, the results of the mathematical model show that the trends already underway in the Brazilian agricultural sector are capable of promoting significant structural changes. She highlighted that the combination of recovery of degraded pastures, integrated systems and efficient soil management is central to the projected result.

She stated that the carbon fixed in the soil by the integration of crops, livestock, forest and the recovery of degraded areas acts directly to offset emissions from the activity.

The study also highlights the so-called land-saving effect, which describes the gain in productive efficiency of Brazilian livestock farming. Between 2004 and 2024, beef production in the country grew by more than 240%, while the total pasture area fell by around 11%, from approximately 181 million hectares to 160 million hectares.

This decoupling between production and land use resulted in the saving of around 397 million hectares that would be needed if 1990 productivity levels were maintained.

In the most advanced projected scenario, Brazil could stabilize production at around 18.2 million tons of carcass in 2050, even with an additional reduction of up to 35% in the pasture area.

This increase in efficiency would be associated with an increase of approximately 31% in the average weight of carcasses, which would go from approximately 211 kilograms to 277 kilograms per animal slaughtered.

During the presentation, the president of ApexBrasil, Laudemir Müller, highlighted that Brazil seeks to bring a vision based on data and scientific evidence to the international debate.

He stated that Brazilian livestock farming is capable of advancing the climate agenda without compromising productivity and reinforced the agency's role in promoting the country's image as a reliable food supplier.

Müller also highlighted the importance of Crop, Livestock and Forest Integration as a competitive differentiator for the Brazilian model. According to him, the country already has around 17 million hectares under integrated systems, which allows for greater efficiency in land use and a reduction in the carbon footprint per unit produced. He stated that Brazil has a unique tropical model that combines agricultural, livestock and forestry production in the same area.

The study also reinforces that Brazil occupies a relevant position in the global scenario of land use and environmental preservation. The country uses around 30.2% of its territory for agricultural activities, while maintaining approximately 66.3% of native vegetation preserved, of which around 33.2% is protected by environmental legislation within private properties.

In the international context, the report also compares Brazil with large production blocks. According to the data presented, Mercosur operates with a herd at the lowest level in the last six years, North America records the smallest herd in 70 years and the European Union faces the smallest herd in three decades. Brazil maintains the largest commercial herd in the world, with approximately 192.6 million heads of cattle in 2024.

The study also details the concept of emissions from Brazilian livestock farming within the national inventory of greenhouse gases. Enteric fermentation accounts for the majority of emissions from the agricultural sector, representing around 63% of the segment's emissions in 2021, followed by soil management and production systems, including irrigated rice and the use of fertilizers and inputs.

The report also highlights that practices such as intensive plowing and excessive use of limestone can contribute to additional carbon emissions, while conservation systems reduce this impact.

Another point addressed is the reduction in the intensity of emissions per animal over time. Despite the increase in the herd and total production, there was an approximate 8% drop in emissions per head, as a result of improvements in pasture management, animal nutrition and genetics.

This indicates that the Brazilian production system has become more efficient in terms of emissions per unit produced, even though the total volume has increased.

The study also highlights the role of carbon removal, differentiating industrial carbon capture and storage technologies from agricultural practices. Brazil appears as one of the global leaders in removal associated with the energy matrix and biofuels, such as sugarcane ethanol, corn ethanol, biodiesel and the use of biomass. This combination places the country as the second largest in removal capacity among evaluated technologies, behind only the United States.

During a technical speech at an event promoted by Famato (Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Mato Grosso), Embrapa researcher Roberto Giolo de Almeida reinforced the central role of the state in the modernization of Brazilian livestock farming and the adoption of the ABC Plan. He highlighted that Mato Grosso has become a national reference in low-emission agriculture, with strong integration between science, the productive sector and public policies.

He also highlighted that all Brazilian states have ABC Plan committees, but that in Mato Grosso this work is more structured and fully implemented through programs such as ABC Mais em Ação.

According to him, the ABC Plan must be understood as a productive efficiency strategy and not just as an environmental policy, as it allows us to produce more with less environmental impact and greater climate resilience.

The researcher also reinforced that Brazilian livestock farming already shows a drop in emissions per animal due to improvements in pastures, nutrition and genetics, although the increase in total production has increased the global volume of emissions. This movement, according to him, demonstrates gains in efficiency and reinforces the importance of sustainable intensification.

Environmental preservation becomes worth more in the carbon market

Source: CNN