Brazil is among the biggest responsible for the expansion of oil supply
Brazil is expected to be among those mainly responsible for the expansion of global oil supply in the coming years, according to the World Oil Perspectives (WOO) report, released this Thursday (18) by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec). The entity points to the country alongside Qatar, Argentina and Canada as one of the drivers of production growth outside the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), a group that brings together members of OPEC and allies.
According to the report, the supply of liquids from producers outside the DoC is expected to grow by around 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, reaching 58.2 million bpd. The expansion will be led mainly by Brazil, Qatar, Argentina and Canada, as well as new African producers.
The greater relevance attributed to Brazil occurs amid a review of the outlook for the United States. OPEC states that it has reassessed downward the growth potential of American shale oil production and now considers that the segment may have reached its peak in 2025. In last year's report, the expectation was for expansion to continue until 2030. The organization highlights that, while the United States was seen in WOO 2025 as the main driver of supply growth outside the DoC in the medium term, its contribution was significantly reduced in this year's edition.
According to OPEC, Brazilian liquids production should continue to grow with the advancement of pre-salt projects. The country's crude oil supply is projected to rise from 3.7 million bpd in 2025 to 4.4 million bpd in 2030, supported by new platforms coming online and the development of ultra-deepwater fields.
The entity projects that Brazil will be the second largest contributor to the increase in supply among producers outside the DoC in the period between 2025 and 2050. In the long-term horizon, Brazilian liquids production is expected to reach a peak close to 5.8 million bpd in the early 2040s, before declining moderately to 5.6 million bpd in 2050.
The report also highlights the growing importance of Latin America for global supply. According to OPEC, the region is expected to account for almost 75% of the net increase in supply among producers outside the DoC by 2050, driven mainly by Brazil and Argentina.
Source: CNN