Brazil could sell more than 3 million vehicles again in 2026 after 12 years, says Anfavea

BYD factory in Camaçari, in the Metropolitan Region of Salvador
Malu Vieira/ g1 BA
The National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) revised upwards the projection for the Brazilian automotive market in 2026 and started to predict that the country will surpass the mark of 3 million vehicles sold this year.
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If the estimate is confirmed, it will be the first time since 2014 that the sector will reach this level. The entity's expectation is that registrations will grow 11.7% in relation to 2025, well above the forecast released in January, which pointed to an increase of just 2.7%.
According to Anfavea, the performance is mainly driven by the automobile and light commercial vehicle market, whose growth projection was raised to 12.6%. The truck and bus segments are expected to end the year with a drop of 6%.
Despite the increase in sales in the domestic market, the entity states that the national industry is unable to keep up with the same growth rate due to the increase in imports and the reduction in exports.
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The projection for vehicle production was also revised upwards, from growth of 3.7% to 5.8% in relation to last year. As a result, Brazil is expected to manufacture around 2.8 million vehicles in 2026, the highest volume since 2019.
"The national market remains very heated, and this has contributed to a slight increase in the level of employment. On the other hand, part of this recovery has been captured by imports", stated the president of Anfavea, Igor Calvet.
According to him, the increase in purchases of vehicles from abroad is favored by import rates below the international average and the tax exemption for electrified vehicles assembled in the SKD system (semi-assembled).
Best first semester since before the pandemic
The numbers for the first semester reinforce the good moment of the Brazilian automotive market. Between January and June, 1.372 million vehicles were produced, an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period in 2025.
This is the best result for the period since 2019. Car sales grew 23.7% in the semester, equivalent to 208 thousand units more than in the previous year.
According to Anfavea, around 73 thousand of these sales were driven by the Sustainable Car program, aimed at to entry vehicles. Another 130,000 vehicles sold came from the advancement of electrified models - approximately 70,000 of which were produced in Brazil and 60,000 imported.
In June, electrified vehicles reached a record share in the Brazilian market, representing 20.9% of light vehicle sales.
The heavy-duty vehicle market remains weaker. In the six-month period, truck sales fell 10.5%, while bus sales fell 11.6%, despite June having recorded the best performance of the year for both segments.
Exports fall more than 20%
While the domestic market remains strong, exports continue to decline. In June, vehicle shipments were 26.7% below that recorded in the same month last year. In the first half of the year, Brazil exported 216.6 thousand vehicles, a drop of 21.2%.
According to Anfavea, the main reason is the reduction in demand from Argentina, the traditional destination for Brazilian exports, in addition to the increase in competition from vehicles produced in China and Mexico.
In view of this scenario, the entity started to project a 12.8% drop in exports in 2026. In January, the expectation was for growth of 1.5%.
The increase in imports caused the Brazilian automotive sector to once again record a deficit in the trade balance after several years.
Between January and June, 280.6 thousand imported vehicles entered the country, while exports were below this volume by around 63 thousand units.
China accounted for half of the vehicles imported in the period. In just one year, the number of Chinese cars sold in Brazil doubled, from around 70 thousand to 140 thousand units, according to Anfavea.

Source: G1