Arko Advice: Master Case and bomb plots dominate the scene in Brasília

The issue of Banco Master continues to provoke expectation and concern among political actors and in the country's highest court. The assessment is by Cristiano Noronha, vice-president of Arko Advice. Veja magazine published a report that affects Davi Alcolumbre, according to which he had received money from Daniel Vorcaro. Furthermore, the Federal Police announced that it rejected the proposal for a plea bargain presented by Daniel Vorcaro, although a new proposal is being negotiated with the Attorney General's Office.

Even given the possibility of rejecting the agreement, the case should continue to influence the October electoral dispute, as investigations continue regardless of any agreement. According to Noronha, Banco Master has already produced important impacts on the succession scenario, and many doubts still persist about the political scope of the investigations.

In the economic field, Noronha highlighted the government's intense concern with projects that increase fiscal spending, called bomb agendas. The Senate has already approved a proposal related to rural debts with an estimated impact of R$140 billion over the next 13 years, according to the economic team, which signaled that Lula could veto the project or appeal to the Federal Supreme Court if it moves forward.

There was also a demonstration by Gilmar Mendes who, without specifically mentioning the project, defended that measures that increase public expenditure be accompanied by the respective sources of financing. The legislative agenda remains intense, despite the proximity to the electoral calendar.

Hugo Mota announced his intention to vote in the week of June 15th to 19th, on a bill authored by the government that deals with the specificities of certain professional categories in the context of the debate on the end of the 6×1 scale. The objective, according to Noronha, is to unlock the Chamber's agenda, as the project is being processed under a constitutional urgency regime. Among the proposals that Hugo Mota intends to vote on are the project that increases the revenue of the Individual Microentrepreneur (MEI) - classified by the economic team as a bombshell as it has an estimated fiscal impact of around R$50 billion - and the project on artificial intelligence.

In the Senate, expectations fall on the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution that deals with the end of the 6×1 scale. Davi Alcolumbre continues to demonstrate resistance to the project, while the government insists that the matter progress as quickly as possible.

Judiciary, economy and external agenda
In the context of the Judiciary, Noronha highlighted a trial scheduled for the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court involving Eduardo Bolsonaro. The case stems from public statements and posts on social media in which he claimed to have acted to encourage United States sanctions against Supreme Court ministers, the PGR and the Federal Police. The tendency, according to Noronha, is for him to be condemned, generating more wear and tear on the Bolsonaro camp.

On the economic agenda, a Central Bank meeting is scheduled to decide the interest rate, with the expectation of a further reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the Selic. Electoral surveys must also be released, with at least two surveys already registered, from BTG Pactual and CNT-MDA. On the foreign front, Lula travels to France to participate in the G7 meeting, on which occasion he intends to talk to Donald Trump about tariffs - a topic that has also become the subject of electoral dispute, including with the PL candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro.

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Source: CNN