Argus raises Russian wheat crop forecast

Argus raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in the 2026/27 harvest to 91.2 million metric tons, the highest level since the record 2022/23 harvest, after a virtual field observation revealed a more favorable outlook for the winter cereal.

Russia, the world's largest exporter of the cereal, has started the 2026 harvest, with the government pledging to guarantee a stable supply of fuel in the face of shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries.

Argus' forecast for 2026/27 ranges from 88.5 million to 93.9 million tonnes, the commodities data firm said.

This compares to an April estimate of 88.7 million tonnes, a 2025/26 crop of 90.4 million tonnes and a record 96 million tonnes in 2022/23.

The revision was mainly due to the recovery of winter wheat following dry weather in the previous two harvests, the company said, adding that spring wheat production is expected to fall to the lowest level since 2019/20.

The drop in spring wheat production reflects a reduction in planted area and a return to more normal yields following last harvest's record yields, Argus said.

Winter wheat production is on track to reach a record 69.1 million tonnes, Argus reported, citing improved crop conditions in southern Russia, particularly the Rostov region.

Spring wheat production is expected to fall to 22 million tonnes from 29.3 million tonnes in 2025/26.

Argus estimated the total harvested wheat area in Russia at 25.66 million hectares and the overall wheat productivity at 3.55 tonnes per hectare.

Intense rains in southern Russia could harm wheat quality, while warmer weather or harvest delays could weigh on yield potential, Argus said.

The Argus crop forecast is based on a virtual observation of plantations carried out between June 15th and 19th.

(Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide)

Source: CNN