Analysis: US risks pushing Brazil towards China with tariffs

With the United States National Security Doctrine, announced last year, there was a clear indication that the Americas and the Western Hemisphere are the centers of American attention. It is the consecration of the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, leaving the Americas at the center of the global geopolitical chessboard.

This occurs due to four main factors. Access to natural resources essential to American growth - including rare earths and energy -; the fight against transnational organized crime in the region; curbing migratory flows; and the need to counter China's presence in the region - which is becoming increasingly stronger with investments, trade and strategic partnerships.

Most countries in the Americas have changed alignment in recent electoral cycles, gaining governments more aligned with Donald Trump's White House. These are the cases of Colombia, Chile and Peru, which elected right-wing presidents.

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Brazil, however, is one of the few that still has a contrarian stance, avoiding submitting to US political advice. This week, there was a public hearing for a commercial process called Section 301, which reviews trade practices that may be considered unfair.

In the Brazilian case, it had to do with digital platforms, Pix, deforestation and products that would compete under illegal conditions with the Americans.

The hearing was held in Washington. Representatives of Brazilian companies, national productive associations and other figures participated. They defended points of view, often aligned with the interests of the US private sectors that purchase these products possibly affected by US tariffs.

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These goods, which can suffer from 25% import duties, are essential to the US public. This is because, in many of them, Brazil is the best supplier (or the only one), or, where the country participates in production chains of interest to the White House.

Trump's trade policy has to do with the geopolitical chessboard of the Americas. And, if the United States wanted to establish a healthy, mutually beneficial partnership with Brazil, it needed to understand the needs of Brazilians. Otherwise, they risk losing the dominance of this relationship to China.

*Alberto Pfeifer is general coordinator of the Defense, Security and Intelligence group at USP (University of São Paulo) and Geopolitics researcher at Insper Agro Global. He was director of Special Projects and Strategic International Affairs at the Presidency of the Republic. This text was transcribed in first-person video analysis for WW.

Source: CNN