Analysis: US-Iran agreement exposes limits and upsets Israel

The memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, scheduled to be signed at a ceremony in Geneva, Switzerland, has not yet been released. Israel, despite having acted jointly with the Americans in the attacks against Iran, is not expected to sign the document. An Israeli source told CNN that the country requested access to the full memorandum about to be signed, but the request was denied by the United States.

CNN International analyst Lourival Sant'Anna and professor of International Relations at PUC-Rio and Eceme (Army Command and General Staff School) Carlos Frederico Coelho analyzed the developments of the agreement and its strategic implications for the region for WW.

Iran feels empowered after the conflict
According to American intelligence agencies, authorities in Tehran feel empowered by the results of the war so far. According to these same sources, Iran is considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz again as an instrument of pressure.

A source with access to these reports told CNN that for Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has proven to be a more powerful weapon than any nuclear bomb.

Although Iran's ability to militarily control the strait has been reduced by attacks from Israel and the United States, intelligence indicates that Tehran keeps about two-thirds of its missile launchers intact and retains half of its drone storage capacity.

Iran also took advantage of the ceasefire to resume drone production, and estimates in May suggested that the country could fully restore its drone attack capabilities in about six months.

Trump redesigned the situation in an unfavorable way
For Carlos Frederico Coelho, the conflict resulted in a strategic redesign that benefits Iran in an unexpected way. "Iran has discovered that the Strait of Hormuz is in fact more valuable than a nuclear weapon, and from now on, Tehran will never negotiate from a position of weakness," he said.

According to the professor of International Relations, the memorandum to be signed is relatively generic, and it is speculated that it provides for charges for maritime services and the return of funds to Iran. "If everything we are seeing actually comes to fruition, we are facing an absolutely disastrous adventure on the part of the American government", he declared.

Lourival Sant'Anna highlighted that the conflict had its origins in a colossal error in intelligence analysis. "A lot of these things, we who have followed Iran for many years, would predict that a decapitation of the regime would not lead to its downfall and that it might resort to closing the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

For the analyst, Israel will lose with the outcome of the conflict everything it had strategically achieved since October 2023, while Iran will occupy a position of greater regional prestige.

Israel in a delicate position and American pressure
Carlos Frederico Coelho assessed that Israel's options depend on the level of pressure that the United States will exert. In the last few hours, there have been attacks in southern Lebanon, and Iran claims to have registered 84 violations of the ceasefire in the two days before the expected signing.

Iran also stated that the memorandum is at risk of not moving forward if Israeli operations in Lebanese territory continue.

"Iran is in a condition of maximum bargaining capacity at this moment", assessed the Eceme professor, adding that, by the Friday (19th) of the signing, the country could demand more effective control over Israel's actions from the United States. "Iran loses the war and won the hand of the deck and won the table", he summarized.

Europe and interest in unblocking the Strait
At the G7 meeting, Europeans demonstrated their willingness to collaborate with the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including the displacement of assets to remove mines from the region.

Carlos Frederico Coelho explained that European interest is direct: the combination of conflicts in Iran and Ukraine generates significant inflationary pressure on energy prices on the continent. "Everything that Europeans can do with a minimum of security now is certainly in the interests of European rulers," he said.

Coelho highlighted, however, that the effective reopening of the strait depends on more than an official statement. "Oil will only flow when insurance companies and ships believe there is safety. These companies do not trust press releases," he said.

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Source: CNN