Analysis: Trump seeks victory with "nuclear dust" symbolism

The United States claims to have seen some progress in negotiations with Iran, but recognizes that progress is still needed to reach an agreement. The main point of impasse remains Iran's nuclear program, especially the issue of highly enriched uranium in Tehran's possession.

While Washington and Tehran fail to reach an understanding, countries in the region are intensifying diplomatic efforts to avoid a resurgence of the conflict. The head of the Pakistani Armed Forces, Hassim Munir, and a delegation from Qatar arrived in Iran to intensify dialogue and seek to resolve the main impasses between the two parties.

The United States government is pressuring Iran to transfer uranium enriched to levels close to that needed to make nuclear warheads. Iranian authorities, however, reject the idea of passing on the material to a historical enemy of the Islamic Republic.

Proposals that aim to transfer the material to countries considered friendlier, such as Turkey and Russia, are seen as more palatable options among authorities in Tehran, but there is no internal consensus on the issue.

The uranium is thought to be stored in gas cylinders in underground facilities, access to which would have been destroyed by the wave of attacks carried out by the United States and Israel in mid-2025.

The Iranian news agency Tasnim reported that progress had been made on some points in the talks, but that an agreement should only be reached if there is consensus on all issues at hand. In Sweden, during a NATO meeting, American Michael Rubio made similar statements.

Analysis: Iran negotiates from a position of strength
For Paulo Filho, master in Military Sciences, during an interview with WW, Iran feels that it has an advantage in the negotiations.

"Iran feels that it is negotiating from a position of strength," he said, explaining that the country's closure of the Strait of Hormuz causes a major economic disruption that affects the international scene and puts pressure on the United States.

Paulo Filho also highlighted that the Iranian leadership has already reiterated, on several occasions, that it will not give up its nuclear program, which deepens the impasse. According to him, the weekend in question points to a possible deadline for an American decision, especially considering the Memorial Day holiday on Monday (25), which would keep stock exchanges closed and cushion the economic impact of a possible attack.

CNN International analyst Lourival Sant'Anna assessed that there is a confluence of factors pointing to possible military action.

"Trump simply cannot extract from the Iranians the concession he believes they need," he said, referring to the delivery of 441 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.

Sant'Anna recalled that Donald Trump announced that he will not attend the wedding of his son, Donald Trump Jr., in the Bahamas this weekend, opting to remain in the White House - a gesture interpreted as a sign that important decisions are imminent. For the analyst, Trump employs two simultaneous tactics: demonstrating that everything is converging towards an attack, putting pressure on negotiations, and at the same time preparing real military action.

Military difficulties of a new attack
When asked whether a new attack would change the status quo of negotiations, Sant'Anna was categorical: "In negotiations, no." According to him, Iran already prices these attacks and has a higher pain tolerance than Trump.

In addition, the pressure and indications of a possible resumption of war are already causing political and economic damage to the United States, while Iran says it is prepared for a new confrontation.

Paulo Filho added that, although the American war machine is very powerful and a new attack would certainly cause havoc on the Iranian armed forces, Iran has already demonstrated the ability to react and escalate the conflict.

The country can reach desalination plants, oil and natural gas production infrastructures, as well as data centers belonging to North American companies in the region. The cliffs around the Strait of Hormuz remain littered with missiles and drones that the United States and Israel have failed to destroy over weeks of previous attacks. "Why would they be able to do it now? It's a question that doesn't have a good answer", concluded Sant'Anna.

For Paulo Filho, the main targets of a possible attack would be military installations, missile launchers, warehouses and fuel factories. He stressed, however, that the weeks of ceasefire gave Iran additional time to hide its material, rethink its planning and prepare for new US military action. "It is a military challenge even for the greatest military power in history, which is the United States", he concluded.

The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.

Source: CNN