Analysis: Trump seeks redemption in Cuba after failure in Iran
US President Donald Trump is searching for the kind of regime-altering triumph in Cuba that eluded him in Iran. But any move toward further action by the country's already overstretched military would come with high political and military risks.
The U.S. government's indictment of 94-year-old former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder and conspiracy to kill American citizens is a turning point in a nearly 70-year American confrontation with the communist island.
Wednesday's (20) indictment, which took place on Cuban Independence Day, is a significant step on Trump's climbing ladder. It coincides with a US oil blockade that has provoked a serious humanitarian crisis and threatens to collapse Cuban society, increasing diplomatic pressure, and a recent list of demands delivered in Havana by CIA Director John Ratcliffe.
Trump has been threatening Cuba for weeks, saying he can do "anything" he wants with the country and that he can have "the honor of taking Cuba."
On Wednesday, he said he was "liberating" the country. "It's a nation in collapse. You see it. It's falling apart. They don't have oil, they don't have money," Trump told reporters.
"But we're there to help - we're there to help the families, the people," he added.
Castro's indictment, relating to the shooting down of two civilian aircraft in 1996 that killed four people, including three Americans, appears to be a double move by the administration.
Trump may hope to further pressure the regime in Havana, perhaps sidelining weaker or more pragmatic members who might be willing to negotiate. But the new legal front could also be a pretext for military action or a special forces operation similar to the one that toppled Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro in January.
Lee Schlenker, a research associate at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that the Justice Department indictment, unsealed in Florida, could be counterproductive for the White House if it were aimed at obtaining Cuban concessions. "I think this is going to be a death knell for any potential deal with Cuba," Schlenker said.
"This will produce an effect of unity around the flag and harden the siege mentality of the Cuban leadership," he added. The move on Cuba is the latest test of the administration's strategy of intensifying economic pressure through a blockade while raising the prospect of using force to make enemies capitulate.
This worked in Venezuela and helped identify Delcy Rodríguez, a high-ranking regime figure turned acting leader who is negotiating with Trump's team. But Venezuelans have yet to see their hopes for democracy come to fruition.
A similar approach has also failed so badly in Iran that Trump may have no option but to restart the war.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel attacked the indictment as a political maneuver that demonstrates the "arrogance and frustration" of the American empire. His country's resistance challenges the fundamental belief of Trump's foreign policy: that every situation is a deal waiting to happen and that the possibility of American military action against smaller adversaries could lead them to concede and open their borders, real estate and raw materials to American companies.
Trump says the United States is "liberating Cuba" | CNN PRIME TIME
Trump's drop in the polls complicates threats to Cuba
Currently, there are no signs near Cuba of the large military buildups that preceded American military action in Venezuela and Iran.
CNN reports that US military intelligence flights are increasing along the Cuban coast. An increase in this type of activity preceded attacks on Iran and Venezuela. However, Trump's falling approval ratings because of the war in Iran mean he has little political capital to support a new military endeavor.
Recent polls from CNN, the New York Times and other outlets show that a majority of Americans oppose the war in Iran. Many have begun to directly connect Trump's policies to their personal economic challenges. And polls also show that a majority of Americans oppose Trump's Cuba policy.
A direct U.S. confrontation with Cuba - while it would undoubtedly be popular among anti-communist exiles in Florida, who are a significant political force - would pose yet another enormous challenge to Republicans in the midterm elections.
The Republican Party already bears the brunt of Trump's historically low approval ratings, and a new conflict would fuel Democrats' claims that the president is indifferent to voters' suffering. Even a foreign policy triumph in Cuba could mean little to voters struggling to pay for housing and groceries.
"The American people are not calling for another war. They want us to focus on building housing in Arizona - not bombing housing in Havana," Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego said in a statement last month, as Democrats failed to block the use of U.S. forces in any unauthorized military action against Cuba.
"They want us to lower the cost of health care - not to condemn a generation of veterans to a lifetime of hospital visits. They want us to make their lives more affordable - not to spend their tax dollars on unnecessary wars."
Any American attack or special forces incursion, in turn, would risk much greater resistance and potential American casualties than the lightning attack by U.S. operatives against Maduro.
Cuba's army is under-resourced, with equipment often out of date. But it could still inflict casualties on any US expeditionary forces. And security around Castro will likely be extremely tight to prevent any spectacle of Maduro-style special forces capture-and-run.
Decades of synergy between the regime and its people could also mean that the cooperation with U.S. officials and diplomats seen in Venezuela would be unlikely in Cuba, notwithstanding the Trump administration's reported contacts with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's grandson and bodyguard.
Schlenker highlighted that the Cubans adopt a defensive doctrine that requires the entire population to respond in the event of a foreign invasion.
"This would cause American casualties that would (also) lead to dozens, if not hundreds, of Cuban civilians and security forces dying," he said.
"We really wouldn't see a total transformation of the Cuban government. On the contrary, we would see increased repression, very little progress towards democracy and a free market."
The tightening of the American blockade on Cuban oil imports, in turn, is creating an unstable situation by causing extreme deprivations that risk social collapse.
This could cause a mass exodus of refugees that would quickly turn into an immigration crisis for a government that has promised to protect U.S. borders.
However, the administration's affinity for swift, forceful military operations - at least until war with Iran - means that American military action can never be ruled out.
Trump often recalls the operation against Maduro with satisfaction in his speeches. The operation may have mistakenly led him to believe that overthrowing the Iranian regime and winning the war would be easy.
Why does the government believe it has a winning hand in Cuba?
Given the risks and skepticism regarding Trump's military adventures, which fit poorly with his promises not to fight any more foreign wars, why would the government even consider starting a new crisis in Cuba?
Well, the president urgently needs a victory to bolster a foreign policy that his team claims has restored U.S. prestige and respect abroad, but which in reality appears quite frayed, given his inability to end the war in Iran and his failures thus far to end the Ukrainian conflict or move forward with the Gaza ceasefire plan.
The prospect of becoming the president who succeeded where his predecessors, from John F. Kennedy onwards, failed in overthrowing Fidel Castro's regime, promises the kind of historic recognition that Trump craves. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, has long sought to undermine the government in Havana as a driving force in his career.
Transforming Cuba from an adversary into a client would consolidate the "Donroe Doctrine", the government's effort to control the entire Western Hemisphere. In addition to the operation against Maduro, the policy led Washington to offer a financial bailout to a pro-Maga (Make America Great Again) president in Argentina and to support right-wing populists in elections throughout the region.
American governments have long been concerned about espionage and surveillance based in Cuba, off the coast of the United States, by adversaries such as Russia and China. Changing the regime would also deprive these powers of political allies in Havana. Cuban civilians have lived in repressive and economically precarious conditions for decades.
Destroying the regime would also offer them hope of political freedoms and more prosperous lives - although the government's record raises doubts about its sincerity on this point. And Trump's support for harsh and coercive methods, which are having a devastating impact on the population, leaves him facing accusations of inhumanity and violation of international law.
UN experts warned in February that the US oil blockade and associated sanctions were threatening "indispensable fuel for electricity generation, water and sanitation systems, hospitals, public transport and food production, including irrigation, harvesting, refrigeration and food distribution".
But on Wednesday, Rubio told Cubans in a video message that "the real reason you don't have electricity, fuel or food is because those who control your country have looted billions of dollars."
He added that "nothing was used to help the people," according to a translated transcript. No one argues that the Cuban government is anything other than cruel and repressive.
The same could be said about Iran, where another Trump blockade is worsening the suffering endured by civilians who have also faced years of internal persecution. But neither regime has fallen yet. And the tactics the president is using to try to cement his own place in history mean that any triumphs will come at a high cost.
Who is Raúl Castro, former president of Cuba
Source: CNN