Analysis: Trump links Iran deal to Abraham Accords
The president of the United States, Donald Trump, once again linked a possible agreement with Iran to the accession of Arab countries to the Abraham Accords, which aim to normalize relations between these countries and Israel. The statement was made in an extensive publication on the American leader's social network and reignites the debate about the real possibilities of diplomatic understanding in the region.
According to what was released, Trump had already indicated at the beginning of the week that countries such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia should establish diplomatic relations with Israel as part of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.
Iranian state TV even published what would be a memorandum of understanding being discussed between the two countries, in which the American military blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted in exchange for the resumption of pre-war traffic in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. The White House, however, classified the report as a "complete fabrication".
Close to zero possibility for Abraham Accords
Professor of International Relations at ESPM and Unifa Gunther Rudzit assesses that Saudi Arabia had been progressively moving away from any normalization with Israel since the beginning of conflicts in the region.
Recently, the country signed a military alliance with Pakistan and declared that there is no way to sign a normalization agreement until a Palestinian state is created. "Given the stance of Benjamin Netanyahu's government, the Palestinian state will not exist. Therefore, yes, the possibility is zero," said Rudzit.
Hands tied: Trump's limits in the face of conflict
Lourival Sant'Anna also highlighted that the Americans have been restraining themselves militarily. Despite having recently shot down four Iranian drones, the action does not yet represent a resumption of bombings.
According to the analyst, Trump faces legal, political and economic restrictions that limit his options. Lourival added that, under the American Constitution, without Congressional approval, after 60 days - a deadline of April 28 -, the American government cannot launch a new offensive against Iran. "It would be a clear violation of American law," he said.
In the strategic field, Rudzit points out that the conflict is redesigning the global energy order. "A regional rearrangement is underway that will have global repercussions, both in strategic and energy terms", he stated.
The professor also highlighted the recent sending of 6 thousand soldiers and a squadron of fighters by Pakistan to Saudi Arabia as a sign of rapprochement between a nuclear Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, looking towards Israel. "This is just the tip of the iceberg of the changes that lie ahead", he concluded.
Israel expands combat zone in Lebanon
In parallel with diplomatic negotiations, Israel continues to expand its military operations in Lebanese territory, despite the ceasefire in force. Israel's defense forces now consider the entire region below the Zahrani River a combat zone against Hezbollah.
The area corresponds to around 2 thousand square kilometers, representing approximately 20% of Lebanese territory - more than double what was there before.
The mouth of the Zahrani River is less than 10 kilometers from Sidon, the third most populous city in Lebanon, where part of the displaced population from the south of the country has sought refuge. More than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced by Israeli attacks and evacuation orders since March 2, equivalent to around 20% of the country's population.
Understand what the Abraham Accords are that Trump requires countries to sign
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Source: CNN