Analysis: The possibility of an agreement between the US and Iran is increasingly remote
The prospects for an agreement between the United States and Iran remain increasingly remote, according to the analysis of correspondents and analysts from CNN Brasil's Fora da Ordem program.
Despite Donald Trump's recurring statements signaling the closeness of an understanding, the reality of the negotiations points to a scenario of high complexity and very slow progress.
Mariana Janjácomo, CNN correspondent in the United States, assessed that the situation remains practically unchanged. "I'll repeat the answer from a month ago: I think it's very difficult," he said. She compared the impasse to a repeating cycle, noting that after two weeks of vacation, she returned to find exactly the same picture.
Fragile ceasefire and complex negotiations
According to Janjácomo, there are behind-the-scenes conversations going on, but no one expected a negotiation of this size to be simple. "Donald Trump tried to make it seem like it would be easy. These agreements take months, years to make", highlighted the correspondent.
She highlighted that there is an extremely fragile ceasefire, with attacks still being exchanged on both sides. Iran places as an essential point that there is a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, also involving Hezbollah, which adds an even greater layer of complexity to the negotiations.
Trump, in turn, alternates between negotiation speeches and threats. This week, it even declared that it would resume attacks if Iran killed an American soldier.
At the same time, Marco Rubio told the American Congress that the "military operation" - a term he uses instead of "war" - had already ended and that the United States had emerged victorious. "There is no unity even in the government itself, not even in the White House itself, regarding the direction of this war", assessed Janjácomo.
American Congress reacts and approves symbolic measure
The dissatisfaction of the American population with the continuation of the conflict began to be reflected in Congress. The US House of Representatives this week approved a measure to limit Donald Trump's war powers.
The initiative should not come into force for practical reasons related to the legislative process in the United States, but it was considered symbolically significant: four Republicans joined Democrats to approve it.
"Four Republicans is a small number, but it ends up being significant if we consider the entire context", said Janjácomo, remembering that, until recently, the party tried to block any vote in this regard to avoid embarrassing Trump.
Lasting economic effects for the world
The economic impacts of the conflict were also debated. One of the program participants pointed out that the most lasting effect of the war is the reestablishment of oil, gas and fertilizer supply chains, with direct consequences for transport and food production around the world. "Even if the war ends today, we will live with its lasting effects," he said.
In the case of Brazil, the world's largest food producer, food inflation is forecast to reach 7% for the year, against a target of 3%, in part because the country depends on almost 90% of fertilizer imports, with the Middle East being an important supplier.
The world, according to the analysis, is moving to reduce these dependencies, with the construction of new gas pipelines and alternative routes, but the process is expected to take years.
The texts generated by artificial intelligence on CNN Brasil are made based on video cuts from the newspapers in its programming. All information is investigated and checked by journalists. The final text is also reviewed by the CNN journalism team. Click here to find out more.
Source: CNN