Analysis: Quaest survey shows that Lula shows signs of progress in the center

The Genial/Quaest Survey released this Wednesday (10) shows that 48% of the Brazilian electorate disapproves of the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), compared to 47% who approve of the PT's management. According to the assessment of CNN political analyst Clarissa Oliveira on Live CNN, the data reveals that Lula is showing signs of progress among centrist voters.

Advancement in the independent electorate
According to Clarissa Oliveira, the research shows that Lula managed to win back part of the so-called independent voter - those who are not polarized either to the right or to the left.

"Lula shows signs that he has managed to win back part of the centrist electorate," said the analyst, highlighting that some fluctuations still occur within the margin of error. Still, she highlighted that this is "a visible trend, noticeable in the research".

The analyst pointed out two main factors for this movement. The first is the so-called "Dark Horse case", which would have generated political wear and tear for senator and pre-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

The second is the set of measures announced by the federal government in recent months. "You have very consistent signs that the package of benefits that we have seen being announced by the federal government and some very strategic measures for the election are starting to have effects", said Clarissa.

Flávio Bolsonaro retreats, but remains his main opponent
Despite the decline in the polls, Clarissa Oliveira highlighted that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) should not be discarded as a political force. Until recently, he was in a technical tie with Lula and there was a tendency for growth.

Now, this scenario has changed, but the analyst considered that "he resists despite the 'Dark Horse case', despite the bond between him and the former banker Daniel Vorcaro and the political strain caused by this entire episode regarding the financing of the film about his father's story."

The polarization between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the analyst, remains intact. The other candidates on the right, with the exception of Renan Santos - who shows "a slightly more expressive movement" -, were unable to capitalize on Flávio's wear and tear.

Part of the electorate that migrated may have gone to Lula, especially centrist voters who had already voted for him previously. "This one seems to have returned, at least a portion of this group seems to have returned to Lula", said Clarissa.

There are still marginal records of migration for other names, such as Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG), who was not included in previous surveys, with around 2% of voting intentions.

Clarissa reinforced that the current situation is "infinitely better" for Lula than previously observed, but that the challenge will be to maintain this positive trend in the coming months. "There's still a lot of time until the election", pondered the analyst.

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Source: CNN