Analysis: Netanyahu's rival is his exact opposite and this could be an advantage

On the evening of June 8, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party published four words on its official X account:

"There is no Gadi without Tibi."

The short message was accompanied by an 11-second video, generated by artificial intelligence, that showed two politicians, Gadi Eisenkot and Ahmad Tibi, side by side in front of a Parliament covered by dark clouds.

At the end of the video, the phrase appeared: "Eisenkot has no government without the Arabs", in reference to Tibi, one of Israel's most prominent Arab parliamentarians.

The publication highlighted two central elements of the party's campaign for the parliamentary elections scheduled for the end of October.

First, that Netanyahu will once again resort to the anti-Arab discourse that Likud has used for years. Second, the former head of the Israeli Armed Forces, Eisenkot, came to be seen as the main political threat to the longest-serving leader in the country's history.

Eisenkot's name may not yet be widely known outside of Israel, but on the Israeli political scene he is increasingly gaining prominence, replacing former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett as Netanyahu's main challenger.

An advisor to the prime minister stated that the party has more than 400 videos about Eisenkot ready for release.

The Yashar party ("upright" or "honest" in Hebrew), founded by Eisenkot less than a year ago, until recently appeared with just single digits in most polls of voting intentions.

Now, most surveys show the party technically tied with Likud and ahead of the joint ticket formed by Bennett and another former prime minister, Yair Lapid.

The two tried to attract Eisenkot to a unified bloc opposing Netanyahu. He, however, refused the proposal and preferred to contest the elections independently. Since then, it has surpassed both in several polls of voting intentions.

The most recent Channel 12 poll projects that Eisenkot's party would win 21 seats in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, behind only Likud, with 23 seats, and ahead of the joint ticket of Bennett and Lapid, with 18.

When asked who would be best suited to occupy the position of prime minister, 38% of those interviewed named Eisenkot, while 36% chose Netanyahu. Other research institutes show a similar trend.

The change is also reflected in Likud's communications strategy, which began to treat Eisenkot as Netanyahu's main opponent, after focusing its attacks on Bennett.

In recent weeks, campaign videos began to circulate mocking Eisenkot's heavily accented English, in contrast to the international fluency of Netanyahu, who finished high school in Pennsylvania, in the United States.

Another line of attack that gained traction was the claim that "Gadi would not attack Iran."

For analysts, however, this contrast may be precisely one of the factors that explains Eisenkot's growth. In his style and the public image he projects, he represents Netanyahu's opposite more clearly than any other opponent in recent years.

At 76 years old, Netanyahu has spent decades perfecting political theater, effective messages and grand theatrics.

Eisenkot, 66 years old, has a discreet profile, speaks calmly and avoids drama, characteristics that are not conducive to viral content. A former military planner, he is known for prioritizing processes and strategy.

The trajectories of the two reinforce this contrast. The son of a historian, Netanyahu grew up among Jerusalem's elite and served in the prestigious Sayeret Matkal commando unit.

Eisenkot is the second of nine children of Moroccan immigrants. It was created in Tiberias and Eilat, far from Israel's traditional centers of power and influence. In his military career, he rose through the ranks of the Golani Brigade until becoming chief of the General Staff of the IDF (Israel Defense Forces), a position he held between 2015 and 2019 after being appointed by Netanyahu himself.

"Under your command, Gadi, the Israel Defense Forces have done an excellent job," Netanyahu said at Eisenkot's farewell ceremony in 2019. "We salute him for his many merits as a fighter and commander," he declared.

His period at the head of the Armed Forces was marked by political pressure and controversies.

In 2016, Eisenkot oversaw the prosecution of Elor Azaria, a military doctor convicted of killing a wounded Palestinian attacker in Hebron.

The case became a symbol of the debate on military ethics and rules of engagement. Despite strong pressure from the Israeli right, including Netanyahu himself, Eisenkot supported the military justice process.

Eisenkot entered politics in 2022 under the leadership of another former head of the Armed Forces, Benny Gantz. Together, they became part of the emergency war cabinet formed by Netanyahu after the October 7 attacks.

As time passed, Eisenkot became increasingly critical of the government's conduct of the war and the absence of a clear strategy, especially in relation to the hostages held in the Gaza Strip.

"The war is being conducted based on tactical gains, without significant moves to achieve strategic objectives," Eisenkot wrote in a letter sent, in February 2024, to Netanyahu and members of the war cabinet.

The war also transformed his personal history. Two months after the start of the conflict, his youngest son, Gal, died in combat in the Gaza Strip. Later, two of his nephews were also killed during military operations.

At the same time, Yair Netanyahu, the prime minister's son, spent much of the war in Miami and did not serve as a reservist in the Israel Defense Forces.

"We will continue to be a united and happy family so that your sacrifice will not be in vain," Eisenkot said at his son's funeral. "We will do everything to be worthy of him and to make the right decisions on behalf of those who sacrificed themselves, their comrades in arms and all the people of Israel."

In June 2024, Eisenkot and Benny Gantz left the emergency war cabinet, claiming that the government did not have a clear strategy to end the conflict. A year later, Eisenkot broke with Gantz to found his own party, which has since steadily gained strength.

"He gives people the image of someone they would like to hug," columnist Nachum Barnea, from the newspaper Yedioth Aharonot, wrote this week.

According to him, Eisenkot's appeal is above all "emotional" and arises from a combination of factors such as his career as a former head of the Armed Forces, his condition as a bereaved father and his origins as the son of Moroccans raised on the outskirts of Israel.

Its origin may also have political relevance. Mizrahim voters, Jews of Middle Eastern and North African origin, have traditionally formed one of Likud's main electoral bases.

Still, Israel has never had a Mizrahi prime minister. Even Likud deputy David Bitan recently acknowledged in an interview that Eisenkot's origins and life story "give him a very interesting advantage."

Yigal Guetta, former deputy of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, summed up the issue directly in an interview with Israel's Channel 12: "Yes, a Moroccan prime minister!".

Still, with about four months until the elections, polls show that Eisenkot is far from a decisive victory or an easy path to forming a governing coalition.

Netanyahu is an experienced and campaign-savvy politician with a well-established political structure. Eisenkot has never contested a national election independently.

The prime minister's allies have already intensified the attacks. On the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14, commentators accused Eisenkot of having been overly accommodating towards Hezbollah figures in the past, accusations he rejects and which he said he is considering legal action.

Likud's communication also returned to a familiar argument among right-wing voters: that any anti-Netanyahu coalition would depend on the support of Arab parties. Instead of directing this attack at Bennett or Lapid, it is now aimed at Eisenkot.

The arithmetic of coalitions remains the main challenge, not just for Eisenkot, but for the entire anti-Netanyahu bloc. Even if the polls indicate a majority, a possible coalition that brings together left, right, center and Arab parties would face great difficulties in forming a government - and, above all, in keeping it together.

Still, Anshel Pfeffer, Israel correspondent for The Economist and author of one of Netanyahu's biographies, says Eisenkot stands out among previous challengers.

"There has been a kind of 'Israeli audit' going on since 1996 looking for the person who will overthrow Netanyahu," he said. "Those who succeeded, like Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, did so because they were fundamentally different. Those who failed often tried to imitate him." Pfeffer called this pattern "WannaBibis."

In his assessment, Eisenkot does not follow this script. "There is only one Netanyahu. Eisenkot is the first in years to try to beat him by being his opposite," he said.

Pfeffer questions the extent to which this difference actually holds, noting that Eisenkot was a central figure in formulating Israel's military strategy, including the "Dahiyeh doctrine," the use of overwhelming force against civilian infrastructure to deter future attacks by militant groups, developed after the 2006 war in Lebanon, and strategic planning at the start of the war in Gaza. "In terms of personality, he's different," Pfeffer said, "but in terms of politics, that's less clear."

Netanyahu has seen several challengers emerge on waves of hope and popular support, only to be defeated by his political skill. For now, the contrast with Netanyahu appears to be boosting Eisenkot's growth.

"Eisenkot is not Netanyahu and never can be. But this could be exactly what many Israelis are looking for: a fundamentally different leadership style," Pfeffer said.

Source: CNN