Analysis: Food becomes cheaper in June and eases your pocket
The IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) registered an increase of 0.16% in June, a result significantly below market expectations, which projected an average of 0.36% for the period. The index was released by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) this Friday (10).
According to CNN Economics analyst Gabriel Monteiro, not only was the final number a positive surprise, but the composition of the index also showed good quality.
"Not only did this full number come in very well, it came in below expectations, but all the discrimination of this inflation came with good quality", said Monteiro during this Friday's CNN Backstage.
Among the positive highlights, he cited the slowdown in services, fuel and housing, in addition to the first deflation in the food group since November of the previous year.
What became cheaper
Among the items that registered a price drop, ground coffee led with a decrease of 3.72%. Ethanol also became cheaper, with a drop of 3.09%, accumulating the third consecutive month of reduction.
Monteiro explained that the movement is a reflection of the sugarcane harvest: "A lot of sugarcane supply due to the harvest we have been seeing in recent months and, consequently, more cane to grind, more ethanol, cheaper price."
Fruit (-1.58%) and meat (-0.64%) also surprised by becoming cheaper, reversing three consecutive months of inflation above 1% for the food group.
On the negative side, residential energy registered an increase of 1.5%. Monteiro highlighted that energy distributors in different states have requested readjustments in their contracts, with authorizations from ANEEL for increases of 10% to 15%.
Water, sewage, personal expenses, health and care were also among the items that pushed inflation upward in the period.
Inflation trajectory and prospects
Despite the positive result in June, the analyst drew attention to the trajectory of inflation accumulated in 12 months, which is at 4.64%, above the target of 4.5%.
According to him, inflation reached a low of 3.8% and rose again from February onwards, pressured by the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, climate factors and pressure on services.
"One swallow doesn't make a summer", said Monteiro. He highlighted the need for positive data to be repeated in the coming months.
Regarding interest rates, the analyst assessed that the good inflation result in June is convincing the market that there will be another cut at the Central Bank meeting scheduled for August, which would take the Selic rate to 14% per year.
However, two points of attention remain on the radar: the uncertainties related to the conflict in the Middle East, which has once again put pressure on the price of oil after new attacks, and the forecast of a possible "super El Niño" for this year.
The climate phenomenon could make food significantly more expensive in Brazil and other parts of Latin America.
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Source: CNN