Analysis: End of Iran's nuclear program has not been achieved

The United States and Iran signed an interim agreement to end the conflict between the two countries. The measure was confirmed by Donald Trump this Monday (15). For International analyst Fernanda Magnotta, the treaty contemplates partial conquests for the Americans, but leaves the main objective declared since the beginning of hostilities unanswered.

"The most important objective, the one that was declared since the beginning of these hostilities, in fact has not yet been addressed, which was to neutralize in a lasting way, in the long term, the Iranian nuclear program", said Magnotta on CNN 360º this Monday (15).

The agreement provides that within 60 days issues such as uranium enrichment, sanctions and nuclear stocks must be negotiated again. "This has not been resolved", highlighted the analyst.

According to Magnotta, the agreement covers a "package" of immediate demands: the suspension of hostilities, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and, as a consequence, a certain control over markets and inflation that affected the United States and the rest of the world.

The analyst also highlighted that each side must sell the agreement differently to their domestic audiences: "Donald Trump will sell this as a victory, he will use this episode as a show of strength, that there was a temporary containment of Iran." However, Magnotta assesses that, from a strategic point of view, "at most the United States gained time."

On the Iranian side, the narrative is very different. "They are not treating it as an agreement, but as a memorandum that begins a broader negotiation. One is treating it as the end, the other is treating it as the beginning," said the analyst.

Five challenges
Magnotta listed five points of weakness that could compromise the transformation of the provisional agreement into something sustainable in the long term. The first is precisely the ambiguity of the text, which allows for opposing interpretations. The second is the nuclear issue itself, which, as it has not been addressed, could result in nothing more than a truce followed by further escalation.

The third challenge involves countries and groups that are not committed to the agreement, such as Israel and several regional militias. The text of the agreement mentions Lebanon and Hezbollah, but does not resolve issues related to missiles, drones or the broader relationship with Israel, which has already expressed reservations regarding some points of the agreement.

The fourth point concerns American domestic politics. Groups considered more hard-line have already begun to criticize the treaty, comparing it to the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 by Barack Obama and later abandoned by the United States itself in 2018.

The fifth and final challenge highlighted by the analyst is building trust between the parties. "To believe that after an escalation like the one we saw, 60 days will be enough to rebuild confidence, after more than four months of war, I would say is betting on a somewhat optimistic outlook", assessed Magnotta.

For her, both sides needed to avoid the most difficult issues to reach any agreement. "The elephant is still in the room", concluded the analyst.

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Source: CNN