Analysis: Brazil is among the countries with the biggest increases in GDP in 2026

Brazil's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 1.1% in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Economic analyst Lucinda Pinto highlights that the performance surprised some economists and placed the country in a prominent position on the international scene.

"It's strong growth for a country that has had such a high interest rate for so long," noted the analyst on Backstage CNN this Friday (29).

Lucinda compared Brazilian performance with countries that also released their first quarter results: "It draws attention that our growth places Brazil very well positioned", Lucinda pointed out.

Brazil occupied third place in the economic growth ranking, behind only South Korea and China, which had growth of 1.7% and 1.3%, respectively.

The analyst draws attention to the fact that both South Korea, with an interest rate of 2.5%, and China, with 3%, operate with significantly lower interest rates than Brazil.

The dilemma between fiscal stimulus and interest rates
The analyst explained that two main factors supported growth: strong credit growth and fiscal support from the government. "The impact of the fiscal stimulus that the government has granted may continue to impact growth and families' ability to consume", he assessed.

On the other hand, this same stimulus puts pressure on inflation, forcing the Central Bank to maintain interest rates at high levels. "We are seeing two forces there, one almost canceling out the other on the economy", summarized Lucinda Pinto.

Based on this performance, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) indicated that Brazil should regain its position as the tenth largest economy in the world. Last year, the country had been overtaken by Russia and Canada.

For the current year, the IMF projects growth of 1.9% for the Brazilian economy, above the previous projection of 1.6%. If the pace continues, Brazil could reach ninth position among the world's largest economies in 2026.

Highlights by sector
The agricultural sector recorded an expansion of 2% in the period, remaining the main driver of the Brazilian economy. Lucinda, however, considered that the pace was slightly lower than that observed in the previous year. "This year the expansion of agriculture wasn't that strong," he said.

Industry grew 1%, while the services sector advanced 0.5%. This result, according to the analyst, could signal the first effects of the interest rate on the economy, since the sector is strongly driven by consumption.

Family consumption also stood out, with growth of 1%, largely supported by the expansion of credit. "Families took on a lot of debt", explained the analyst, highlighting that the boost in loans taken out during the period helped to sustain this result.

Government consumption, which measures public administration spending, showed a more modest increase of 0.4%, below what was expected.

The investment rate, which measures the country's capacity to expand its infrastructure and productive sector, reached 16.5%, still considered low by analysts.

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Source: CNN