Analysis: Balance of the week is more challenging for Flávio, without time and unity

This week, two events weighed heavily on both the government and the opposition. The first was the investigation involving the former leader of the Senate government, Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), the target of search and seizure as part of the Master case. Politically, this episode has the potential to generate wear and tear for the Palácio do Planalto.

At first, Wagner tried to remain in office, stating that he had the trust of President Lula. This statement ended up having a bad reaction among government officials. With that, he left the role to dedicate himself to his defense.

Some research tracking already indicates a negative impact, albeit discreet. The situation reinforces a known vulnerability of the PT (Workers' Party) in issues related to corruption.

An Arko Advice and Atlas/Intel survey, released exclusively by CNN about two months ago, already showed this factor as one of the main points of rejection of the party and non-vote for President Lula.

Interestingly, the opposition ended up failing to capitalize on this moment of government fragility. This is because, in the same week, a new focus of erosion emerged within the Bolsonarista camp itself.

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) released a video saying she was treated harshly and disrespectfully by senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ). It's a very damaging episode for Flávio's campaign.

Michelle is an important leader among the evangelical electorate and presides over PL Mulher. The group is present in the 27 federation units, and could play an important role in reducing a historical difficulty for the Bolsonaro family: performance among female voters.

Even if there is a reconciliation, the episode raises doubts about her level of engagement in the presidential campaign. Furthermore, the video fuels speculation, which currently has no concrete basis, about a possible change of candidacy within the Bolsonaro camp.

However, the circulation of these rumors alone brings certain political damage, and may encourage criticism from other names on the center-right. Internally, it could make negotiations on state platforms more difficult and increase pressure on the senator to speed up important decisions, such as choosing the candidate for vice president.

Another important movement of the week was Flávio Bolsonaro's decision to participate in a public hearing by the USTR (Office of the US Trade Representative). The strategy is to try to prevent the government from being able to politically exploit possible American tariffs against Brazil.

Another topic that could gain new developments starting next week is the PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) of the End of Scale 6×1.

On July 1st, the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), meets with union centrals and, from this meeting, he can announce the beginning of the proposal's processing in the Senate. Still, little progress is expected this semester.

All in all, the last few weeks have been uncomfortable for both main political camps.

The government is facing the strain caused by the classification of the PCC and the Red Command as terrorist organizations by the United States and, now, also by the Jaques Wagner case. Flávio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, needs to manage both the discussion about American tariffs and, mainly, the crisis opened by Michelle Bolsonaro's video.

In other words, the government and opposition accumulated arguments to attack the opponent. But, in the balance of the week, the scenario seems more challenging for senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

Unlike the government, it is the government that needs to grow in the polls, reduce its rejection and consolidate a national candidacy.

The crisis involving Michelle Bolsonaro has the potential to produce effects that go far beyond an isolated episode, affecting the unity of Bolsonaroism precisely at the moment when the campaign needs to convey cohesion.

And for a candidate who still needs to gain ground among the electorate, time and unity are two assets that make a big difference.

* Lucas de Aragão is a partner at Arko Advice. This text was transcribed in first-person video analysis for WW

Source: CNN