Analysis: Agreement between the US and Iran was the moment that Netanyahu feared most
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was meeting with the security cabinet in a bunker, prepared for the possibility of Iranian ballistic missiles hitting the site, when the phone rang.
On the line was US President Donald Trump, calling to share news of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran.
This was the second call between the two leaders on Sunday (14).
In the first, Trump told the Israeli leader that he was "very angry" with Israel's attack on Beirut and that Netanyahu "doesn't have any sense", according to the newspaper Axios.
This Monday (15), Trump informed him that the war they had started together at the end of February was effectively over.
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When President Barack Obama signed the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, Netanyahu publicly and vehemently rejected it.
He spoke before Congress, knowing he had the support of Republicans, as he harshly criticized both the agreement and the president who negotiated it. This time, the Israeli prime minister has barely spoken publicly about the man who signed the agreement.
O acordo é o cenário que as autoridades israelenses temiam há semanas: ele poderia reabrir o Estreito de Ormuz e levar ao alívio das sanções econômicas contra Teerã, ao mesmo tempo que adiaria as negociações sobre as questões que eram os objetivos declarados de guerra de Israel.
Ships in the Strait of Hormuz in Musandam, Oman May 8, 2026 - REUTERS/Stringer
The memorandum of understanding leaves the thorny issues of Iran's nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal for later discussion, even though it offers economic relief to the regime that Netanyahu wanted to overthrow.
When Netanyahu finally spoke publicly following Trump's announcement of the memorandum of understanding, hours had already passed since other Israeli politicians had spoken out.
At a press conference this Monday (15), Netanyahu barely mentioned the agreement during his eight-minute opening speech.
Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that he barely mentioned Trump in his opening remarks, instead of boasting about their relationship, as he has done regularly for years.
When asked about the agreement later, he said: "There are cases where President Trump and I don't see eye to eye. I am responsible for Israel's security interests, and this needs to be done wisely."
The agreement could also entail new restrictions on Israel's ability to combat Hezbollah, as Iran demands a complete Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon, something Israel has already stated it is unwilling to do.
This Monday (15), a senior American official told reporters that the withdrawal was "not a condition of the agreement."
"If Iran is unable to control Hezbollah and attack Israeli positions or cities, Israel will have the right to defend itself and respond," the official claimed.
While Netanyahu has so far avoided a direct public confrontation with Trump, figures across the Israeli political spectrum have been far less restrained.
Netanyahu's own coalition partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, called the deal "dangerous" and declared that Israel does not consider itself bound by it.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is running to unseat Netanyahu, called what happened "a dangerous turn of events in Israel's security."
The former chief of staff of the Israeli Armed Forces, Gadi Eisenkot, also one of the main candidates for the post of prime minister, described it as a "regrettable result" resulting from a lack of strategy and courage.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel - REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Months ago, sources told CNN that his political team had planned a clear path to the election: a quick victory over Iran, a triumphant visit to the White House in September, a Trump payback to Israel in the final stretch and an avalanche of presidential images propelling Netanyahu to the polls in October.
Instead, discussions to end the war are straining relations between the two leaders. A series of public disagreements exposed Trump's pressure on Israel to end the war and limit its actions in Lebanon.
His passionate calls for Israel to cease fire and announcements about nuclear negotiations on Truth Social, as well as a recent comment to ABC News questioning whether Netanyahu still wants to "continue" in politics, caught the Israeli prime minister by surprise, according to sources.
Political consultant Nadav Strauchler, who has worked with Netanyahu, described the current moment as a "testing point" but not a breaking point.
"I wouldn't call an end to that relationship so quickly," he said, adding that with the October elections about four months away, the relationship could recover, and predicting that Trump will still be a central player in the campaign.
"Trump has been angry before - with Netanyahu, with other leaders - and things tend to go back to normal," Strauchler told CNN.
"Until the last two weeks, there were almost no differences between them. Even now, Trump still respects him and is not closing doors. There are still 60 days left to influence the final nuclear deal. As long as there is a candle lit and the window open, Netanyahu will try to enter through the chimney," he added.
The shift in mood is easy to see on Channel 14, the pro-Netanyahu television network where hosts who once called Trump the greatest gift to the Jewish people now denounce him as a "loser" who has weakened both Israel and the United States.
A source from Likud (the Israeli Congress) even compared him, in a private conversation, to the emperor of Japan in a moment of defeat.
"Right now, Trump is extremely unpopular with Netanyahu's support base," the source said, noting, however, that this change could still be temporary given the October elections.
Os números contam a mesma história. A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, published last week, revealed a sharp drop in the share of Jewish Israelis who consider Israel's security a central concern for Trump - from 64% in March to 41% this month, the lowest level recorded since late 2024.
"Trump's popularity is in decline," right-wing political analyst Mati Tuchfeld wrote in the newspaper Maariv last week, "not a collapse or a crash, but the trend is downward."
Netanyahu's campaign team, he reported, is now seeking a new message because a "Strong Together" campaign with the two leaders "will no longer achieve the same effect as initially hoped."
Opposition leaders are also eyeing this change. A source familiar with his plans told CNN that if Trump supports Netanyahu, his opponents intend to use that against him, presenting it as proof that he has "become a lapdog and abandoned Israel's security interests."
Opposition figures, according to the source, have been sending messages to Trump's contacts, asking them not to support Netanyahu or actively participate in his campaign.
However, the prime minister's team still believes that this is just a temporary obstacle. Behind the scenes, an Israeli source told CNN that Netanyahu is quietly seeking a one-on-one meeting with the American president - something his office has denied.
Such a meeting would allow Netanyahu to convey his concerns about the impending Iran deal to Trump. And it would give the Israeli the political bargaining chip he hoped to use: a demonstration of his closeness to the American.
What is known about the interim agreement between the US and Iran
Source: CNN