Advantage or disadvantage? In the last 20 elections in South America, government candidates only won three times; look

Votes from the second round of the presidential election in Colombia are counted in Bogotá, on Sunday (17)
Diana Sanchez/AFP
Even in healthy democracies, with robust institutions, it is natural to think that the government leaders will come out ahead in any presidential election. The government, after all, naturally occupies the news, has more visibility and the ability to guide the debate, in addition to presenting concrete results.
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South America, however, defies this political maxim: according to a survey carried out by g1, in the Latin American countries of the continent that held recognized elections, the government leaders only won three of the last 20 elections.
Since 2018, only Paraguay and Ecuador saw government victories. The first is experiencing a period of hegemony by the Colorado Party, and is the only one to record two consecutive victories for the party that is in power during the period.
The two most recent elections took place in Colombia and Peru, and ended with the victory of those who were not in the government.
Keiko Fujimori secures victory in the presidential elections in Peru
In the first case, Abelardo de la Espriella, representative of the right, defeated by a small margin of votes Iván Cepeda, candidate of the left and current president, Gustavo Petro.
In Peru, the situation is more complicated. Keiko Fujimori, also on the right, will receive the sash from José María Balcázar, chosen by Congress to serve a buffer term, after the dismissal of Dina Boluate. In practice, there was no government candidate in the dispute.
In many cases, since 2018 - the beginning of the survey -, government supporters end the electoral cycle with low popularity, or involved in scandals, and do not present candidates.
The government defeat does not always necessarily mean an alternation between left and right.
The survey only compiled independent Latin American countries in South America. Venezuela was not included in the count because it did not have elections considered fair by the community. international.
Alternation of power in South America: government supporters only won 3 of the last 20 elections
Bruna Azevedo/g1
See the performance of the continent's government in the last elections:
2018 - Paraguay: government victory
Horacio Cartes handed over power to Mario Abdo Benítez, both from the right-wing Colorado Party.
2018 - Colombia: no government wins
Juan Manuel Santos (considered centrist) handed over power to Iván Duque, from the Democratic Center (right). Duque opposed the peace agreement that Santos reached with the FARC guerrillas and allied himself with Álvaro Uribe, with whom Santos had broken years before.
2018 - Brazil: governmentism doesn't win
Michel Temer (MDB) passed the ticket to Bolsonaro (then in the PSL). The MDB candidate, Henrique Meirelles, had only 1.20% of the valid votes in the first round, and the party freed its members to support whoever they wanted in the second round.
2019 - Argentina: governmentism does not win
Mauricio Macri, a non-Peronist liberal, lost re-election to Alberto Fernández, a left-wing Peronist, supported by Cristina Kirchner.
The then president of Argentina, Alberto Fernández, participates in a session at the National Congress, in Buenos Aires, on March 1, 2023
REUTERS/Tomas Cuesta
2019 - Uruguay: governmentism doesn't win
Tabaré Vázquez, on the left, lost to Luis Lacalle Pou, on the liberal right.
2020 - Bolivia: governmentism doesn't win
Jeanine Áñez, on the right, was interim president and was serving a buffer mandate after the fall of Evo Morales. She passed the banner to Luis Arce, then an ally of Morales.
2021 - Ecuador: governmentism doesn't win
The then president Lenín Moreno had distanced himself from the "correista" left of his former ally, Rafael Correa and became a center-right politician during his term. Unpopular, Moreno did not have a government representative in the elections. Guillermo Lasso beat the "root" correismo of his rival, Andrés Arauz.
2021 - Peru - government doesn't win
Francisco Sagasti, chosen president by Congress because the position was vacant after years of political instability, was from the centrist Morado Party. He was succeeded by Pedro Castillo, representative of the conservative left.
Pedro Castillo, then president of Peru
Reuters
2021 - Chile: governmentism doesn't win
Gabriel Boric, on the left, was elected successor to Sebastián Piñera, rightist.
2022 - Colombia: governmentism doesn't win
Iván Duque, on the right, was succeeded by the leftist Gustavo Petro, who had already was his rival in the previous election.
2022 - Brazil: governmentism does not win
Jair Bolsonaro (PL) tried for re-election, but lost to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in a close vote.
2023 - Paraguay: government victory
Mario Abdo Benítez passed the ticket to Santiago Peña, both from the right-wing Colorado Party.
2023 - Ecuador: governmentism does not win
Guillermo Lasso called early elections after losing support due to scandals in his administration. He did not support any candidate and his party did not present a candidacy either. The winner of the election, Daniel Noboa, is from the same political spectrum.
2023 - Argentina: governmentism does not win
Kirchnerism (left-wing Peronism), in power with Alberto Fernández, launches Sergio Massa as a candidate, but he loses to Javier Milei, on the right.
The president of Argentina, Javier Milei, on April 2, 2026
REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
2024 - Uruguay: government doesn't win
Yamandú Orsi, from the left, beats the right-wing candidate supported by Lacalle Pou, Álvaro Delgado.
2025 - Bolivia: government doesn't win
Luis Arce loses the elections to Rodrigo Paz, from the right, and ends a 20-year cycle of electoral victories for the left in the country.
2025 - Ecuador: victory for governmentism
Daniel Noboa wins re-election, this time for a full term.
2025 - Chile: governmentism does not win
Gabriel Boric fails to elect his supporter Jeannette Jara, and José Antonio Kast, who had lost the previous race, takes the right again to the Palacio de la Moneda.
2026 - Peru: governmentism does not win
In another period of extreme political instability, Keiko Fujimori is elected to succeed José Maria Balcázar, congressman chosen to fill a buffer mandate.
2026 - Colombia: government doesn't win
Gustavo Petro supports Iván Cepeda in the elections, but he loses the second round to Abelardo de la Espriella, candidate on the right of the political spectrum.
Abelardo de la Espriella, president-elect of Colombia
JAIME SALDARRIAGA / AFP
Left x right in South America
Art Editorial/g1

Source: G1