Gerp/Aesp: Flávio and Lula tie with 36% in the 1st round

Released this Wednesday (8), the first national survey by the Gerp institute commissioned by Aesp (Association of Radio and Television Broadcasters of the State of São Paulo) for the 2026 presidential election shows a tie between senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who register 36% each.

Next, the former governor of Goiás Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) appears with 4% of voting intentions. The coordinator of the MBL (Movimento Brasil Livre), Renan Santos (Missão), and the former governor of Minas Gerias Romeu Zema (Novo) have 2% each, followed by the writer Augusto Cury (Avante) and former minister of the STF (Supreme Federal Court) Joaquim Barbosa (DC), both with 1%.

Federal deputy Aécio Neves (PSDB), former deputy Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), UP vice-president Samara Martins (UP), PCO president Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO), and professors Edmilson Costa (PCB) and Hertz Dias (PSTU) did not reach 1%.

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Those who would not vote for any of the options are 6%, while 11% do not know.

Lula x Michelle
The institute carried out first-round simulations by changing the running mates (see the full research below). In the scenario in which Michele Bolsonaro (PL) runs in Flávio's place, Lula reaches 37% of voting intentions and leaves the former first lady with 33%.

In this simulation, Caiado has 4%; Zema, 3%; Renan, 2%; Cury, Barbosa, Aécio and Daciolo, 1% each. The rest did not reach 1%.

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9% of those who would not choose any of the possible candidates and 8% of those who do not know.

Rejection
Among eight names, President Lula is the one with the greatest rejection: 49% of those interviewed say they would not vote for him under any circumstances. The second most rejected is Flávio, with 40%. See the graph:

Approval
According to the survey, disapproval of current president Lula's work is 50%. Voters who approve the administration total 41%.

Those who don't know or chose not to answer the question represent 8% of respondents nationwide.

Evaluation
The institute also measured Lula's evaluation, that is, whether the interviewees considered him excellent, good, average, bad or terrible.

The president's negative evaluation reaches 46%, according to the survey. The index encompasses voters who consider the administration to be bad (9%) or terrible (36%).

On the other hand, 35% positively evaluate the PT member's work at the head of the Palácio do Planalto. This contingent is made up of those who classify the government as excellent (17%) and good (18%).

17% consider it to be regular, while 3% do not know.

Methodology
The Gerp survey interviewed 2,000 voters, between the 3rd and 7th of July, via telephone interview. The survey's margin of error is 2.2 percentage points, plus or minus, with a 95% confidence interval.

The research was contracted by the Association of Radio and Television Broadcasters of the State of São Paulo and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under protocol BR-03067/2026.

Check out the full research

CNN Brasil uses artificial intelligence tools to extract data and generate texts from reports from electoral research institutes. All information is checked by journalists, and the final text is also reviewed by the CNN newsroom before being published. Click here to find out more

Source: CNN