Brazilian soybeans are approaching R$140 per bag, the best price of the year

The global soybean market registered strong movement this week with direct impacts on the Port of Paranaguá (PR). A 60-kilo bag of Brazilian grain reached the best price of the year: R$139.71 recorded this Tuesday (07).

The tripod of formation of the Brazilian price
The final price of soybeans in Brazil is supported by three fundamentals: the price on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the premium at the ports and the behavior of the dollar. When the North American currency gains strength against the real, Brazilian soybeans become cheaper and more competitive for foreign buyers.

Yedda Monteiro, intelligence and strategy analyst at Biond Agro, explains that while in other port complexes in the country prices vary according to the logistics flow, the Port of Paranaguá acts as the main national reference for premiums. "Even with the dollar working in the R$5.15 range, we had a reduction in the premium because the rise in soybeans on the Chicago Stock Exchange ended up playing this role of compensation", analyzes Yedda Monteiro.

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Climate is the main factor in the formation of international prices
The weather forecast for the North American agricultural belt boosted the jump in international prices this week. Meteorology centers predict a wave of intense heat and drought for the next 14 days.

"The months between June and August are known as the North American 'weather market'. It is the most sensitive period for defining the productivity of soybean and corn crops and the market already prices this impact.", reinforces Yedda.

The Stone X consultancy report with estimates for the third quarter highlights that, following the model of previous years, El Niño tends to increase the rainfall rate and reduce the dry period in the North American summer. However, the intensity of the phenomenon has generated uncertainty.

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According to Ana Luiza Lodi, Market Intelligence specialist at StoneX, although the global balance of soybean supply is comfortable, the definition of productivity in the United States will be the main price formation factor.

The dispute over Chinese demand: Brazil x USA
China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans, began purchasing grain from the USA within the commitment of 25 million tons per year. This week, Chinese state-owned company Cofco purchased, at an over-the-counter price, 300,000 tons to be shipped between September and November. Some analysts believe that uncertainty regarding climate and productivity influenced the decision. Typically, grain prices tend to fall as the North American harvest advances.

Although the USA is gaining ground with the advance of the harvest and bilateral agreements, Brazil remains competitive on the international scene due to the volume available in the record harvest.

"The perspective is that Brazil will continue to participate in Chinese purchases in the second half of the year. Will soybeans be a little more expensive in the second half of the year? Yes! However, we need to remember that we had a record harvest", reinforces Yedda Monteiro.

If, on the one hand, the consolidation of purchases in the USA could put downward pressure on Brazilian soybean premiums at ports, on the other, climate problems that reduce North American productivity tend to provide lasting support for prices in Chicago.

Source: CNN