Brazil's geopolitical risk depends on US decisions, points out Arko Advice

The geopolitical risk for Brazil is mainly due to the decisions of the President of the United States, Donald Trump. This is what the "Risco Brasil" report points out, launched this month by political consultancy Arko Advice, WW's content partner.

Tensions in international politics are seen as a medium risk, rating 48 on a scale of zero to 100. The bias is upward, that is, with a chance of the situation worsening over the next few months.

The company explains that issues related to abroad will have domestic and electoral effects this year. "We have never had such a great influence of geopolitics in an election, I think the last time this happened was in 1945 because of the Second World War", said political scientist Murillo de Aragão, CEO of Arko Advice, to WW this Tuesday (7).

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The main weights directly involve the White House and the American interference strategy.

The first is the designation, by the USA, of the criminal factions PCC and Comando Vermelho as terrorists. The consultancy explains that the issue generates diplomatic and financial effects and is already a direct risk factor.

In addition, it points out that new actions by the US Treasury Department - such as applying sanctions to companies and individuals possibly linked to criminal groups - would also be capable of worsening the scenario in the electoral cycle.

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This decision has already generated disputes between Brasília and Washington. This Monday (6), Itamaraty stated that it sees the possibility of using United States military force in Brazilian territory and that the classification "will not bring concrete benefits in the fight against organized crime".

The State Department responded and treated the hypothesis of an attack as "absurd", in addition to defending the White House's security measures.

Analysis: Study by Arko Advice assesses the level of institutional risk in Brazil | WW

The second burden is the instability in the Strait of Hormuz and the price of oil. Even with a ceasefire agreement, the recovery of maritime traffic is still slow and suffers from interference.

Before the war between the United States and Iran, around 100 commercial ships crossed the passage daily, with the new truce and the reopening of the site, the number reached 34 on July 4th. However, constant exchanges of attacks between the two countries increase the risks to navigation and could harm the stabilization of fuel prices.

"The dispute over control of the Strait and the partial resumption of traffic keep oil and diesel as direct triggers for inflation and supply", explains the report.

Arko also classifies the tariff impasse as a risk factor. The text says that the development of negotiations at the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) regarding the application of 25% tariffs for alleged unfair trade practices by Brazil will need to be observed - and could create new risks.

Tariffs, however, do not appear to be an issue capable of deciding the elections, highlights Aragão. According to him, the issue may not demonstrate direct weight to voters - but it will change campaign strategies.

"This is the first time that the international issue has entered the electoral arena", he pointed out. "This messes up the candidates' narrative... Both sides of the election could be harmed by the issue," he concluded.

Source: CNN