Arko Advice: Tariff will not be solely decisive in the 2026 elections

Tariff negotiations between Brazil and the United States cannot be isolated as a decisive factor in the 2026 elections. The assessment is by Murillo de Aragão, political scientist and CEO of Arko Advice, who commented on the Brazilian political and electoral scenario to WW. According to him, the topic, however, will be widely explored throughout the campaign by different sides.

"We cannot isolate this issue as decisive in the elections", said Aragão. "We live a carousel of emotions, a kind of Mexican soap opera, where every week a new fact appears that affects someone's popularity."

Geopolitics enters the electoral scenario
Aragão highlighted that, for the first time, the international issue is becoming a significant part of the Brazilian electoral debate. He cited as an example a statement by Itamaraty about the possibility of a North American military intervention in Brazil - a statement that, according to him, was later denied by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

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"How did we get to this point of officially believing that there could be some type of US military action in Brazil? This is unthinkable if we look at the past", he said.

For Aragão, no recent election, especially in the period of redemocratization, has had such a great influence of geopolitics.

Furthermore, for the CEO, the tariff issue may not have much direct weight for common voters, but it has the potential to mess up the candidates' narrative.

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He noted that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) can adopt the theory of sovereignty, but opponents can counter-argue that such a stance harms the economy by making negotiations unfeasible. "Both elections can be harmed by the issue", he pointed out.

Politicization of Itamaraty
The politicization of Itamaraty was also mentioned, which would have adopted an unusual vocabulary for the institution - including references to "traitors to the country" - and Chancellor Mauro Vieira's response to the Chamber's Foreign Relations Committee about the risk of a foreign military operation in the country.

Aragão analyzed the Brazilian institutional environment, highlighting the conflict between the Executive and the Federal Senate. He cited the rejection of the Union's attorney general, Jorge Messias, to the STF (Supreme Federal Court) as an example of blocking agendas of interest to the government.

"There is no firm dialogue between the presidency of the Republic and the Federal Senate", he stated. According to him, until it is known what the composition of Congress will be after the elections, this uncertainty will continue and no important project should be voted on - unless it has an electoral impact.

Aragão also warned of the possibility of legislative populism, with Congress approving measures that benefit re-election candidates.

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Source: CNN