The Union's fiscal risks should be reliable, says Insper researcher

A recent study by Insper revealed that tax disputes being processed in higher courts may represent a different risk to public accounts than that presented by the government over the last ten years.

The research analyzed the fiscal risk annexes present in the LDOs (Budget Guidelines Laws) between 2016 and 2026 and highlighted methodological flaws and a lack of transparency in the way the Union calculates the impact of these tax actions.

In an interview with CNN Money, Vanessa Rahal, coordinator of Insper's Taxation Center, highlighted three central points of the work.

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"First is how important this document is for the predictability of public spending in general, programming, and government financial planning," he said.

According to her, the document should function as a more reliable public accounts planning instrument than what was found when scrutinizing the numbers and calculation methodologies.

Inconsistencies over a decade
The study identified that, in the ten years analyzed, there is no consistency in the calculation methodology, nor in the disclosure of topics with potential for legal loss, nor in the amount of resources involved.

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Rahal further explained that the data shows growth and decrease in values and themes without any apparent correlation.

"Sometimes themes enter, sometimes themes leave, sometimes values increase, sometimes values decrease, we cannot understand exactly why there is such great variability", he said.

The researcher also drew attention to a recent change that she considers worrying: an ordinance from the Attorney General's Office that provides for the replacement of detailed disclosure by topic with a single aggregate number.

"We won't know very well which topic generates more tax litigation than the other topic", warned Rahal.

Risk of surprises in public accounts
To illustrate the concrete risk of this lack of control, Vanessa Rahal made a comparison with the precatório crisis. According to her, just as happened with court orders - in which a bill accumulated over years appeared seemingly suddenly -, the same can happen with tax litigation.

"Out of nowhere, a huge bill appears that will impact revenue and then you'll have to take money from somewhere", he said.

The researcher also highlighted that the tax reform should reduce part of this litigation, since taxes such as PIS, Cofins and IPI will be extinguished. As a result, legal discussions related to these taxes tend to disappear.

In a note to CNN Money, the IRS reported that it has not formally received the study and will not comment at this time.

"At first glance, the study appears to refer to several years and to have been carried out over a long period of time. The Federal Revenue Service cannot adequately issue comments on it within the required period. Added to this are restrictions determined by the electoral law that would also influence the content of the response", he informed.

The AGU points out that "it is important to highlight that the format for disclosing information was revised with the aim of ruling out the possibility of improper use of information regarding the Union's exposure to Judicial Tax Risks, which had been occurring to the detriment of the defense of the Union, its agencies and foundations."

"As for the procedural strategy, it is up to the AGU, in defense of the interests of the Union, local authorities and foundations, to evaluate the provision of information to the magistrate that allows the consequences of a decision to be measured, which may go beyond the repercussions on public accounts", he informed.

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Source: CNN