Elections in Peru: exit polls

The right-wing candidate, Keiko Fujimori, and the left-wing candidate, Roberto Sánchez, before a televised debate on May 31 in Lima, on the eve of the second round of presidential elections, scheduled for June 7.
Reuters/Alessandro Cinque
Keiko, daughter of convicted former president Alberto Fujimori, was confirmed in first place right at the beginning, but the dispute between who would be her opponent lasted weeks and a vote had to be counted to vote.
Sánchez and the far-right candidate Roberto López Aliaga were practically tied until the final count.
The National Observatory of Electoral Processes (ONPE), the Peruvian TSE, only dropped the hammer when the count reached 99.94% of the revised electoral records, and confirmed Sánchez in the 2nd round. In other words, the campaign time was one of the shortest the country has ever had.
The delay in counting and the electoral challenges, added to a record number of presidential candidates in the country, 35 in total, show the extreme political fragmentation and the crisis of confidence in the democracy that Peru is experiencing.
Lucas Berti, political scientist, researcher on Peru at the South American Political Observatory and executive coordinator of the International Relations and Global South Group, states that, in fact, what happened in these elections in the country does not come from a "vacuum".
"It is a symptom of a process of institutional delegitimization that has been happening in recent years in the country. And this, to the extent that elected presidents are unable to govern", he stated.
9 presidents in 10 years
Peru has had 9 presidents in 10 years. To give you an idea, presidential terms in Peru are 5 years. In other words, in democratic stability, the country would only have two presidents in the same period. However, the reality was different and some leaders did not last even 5 days in office.
"In these years, the leadership that lasted the longest was that of Dina Boluarte, who remained in power for almost three years. But, after displeasing the opposition led by Keiko's Fujimorist coalition in Congress, he also fell", says Berti
In addition, it is worth highlighting article 113 of the Peruvian Constitution, which states that a president can be overthrown due to "permanent moral or physical incapacity" - and those who evaluate this diagnosis are the parliamentarians.
So, by For example, if Congress simply doesn't like a law that the president is trying to pass, they can activate that article, vote and, in less than 24 hours, overthrow a president who was elected by the majority of the population.
For political scientist Berti, this ease of the process demonstrates the institutional fragility at play in Peru. According to him, in recent years, the Fujimorist coalition, with an absolute majority in Congress, has been articulating powers, whether in the Legislature, in the courts or in the judicial system.
Since 2008, Alberto Fujimori's daughter has led this Fujimorist current by founding the Fuerza Popular party and trying to reach the Executive Power in Peru. But that doesn't happen, explains Berti.
"Keiko lost the last three elections (2011, 2016 and 2021) in the second round, by very tight margins. And now in this election, in 2026, he goes to the second round with a larger margin of votes. Some institutes give an advantage to Keiko, others to Sánchez. Which indicates one thing: the election will be difficult and the result is still open", says Berti.
Democracy in crisis: 'distrust chronicle'
The consequence of this struggle between the Executive and Legislative branches in the country resulted not only in a profound political crisis, but also in the way the population views democracy.
"The credibility of institutions is very low if we look at the last 10 years. And distrust in Congress exceeds 90%, especially during the process that would result in the fall of former president Dina Boluarte, in 2025", explains Berti.
The most recent data from the Latinobarómetro survey, which measures the level of democracy in Latin American countries, shows that Peru faces one of the lowest levels of trust in institutions compared to other Latin American countries.

There is what can be classified as "chronic distrust".
According to data, 90% of Peruvians have little or no trust in the government and Congress; and just 10% say they are satisfied with democracy. Furthermore, the research also noted another dangerous feeling: indifference about politics or the type of government regime.
The extreme political fragmentation itself, as shown by the number of 35 presidential candidates in the 1st round, also demonstrates this.
"It is very easy to create parties in Peru and they are parties called 'little institutionalized'. They are parties that do not have effective roots in a society, which is not a party that enters the dispute for 20, 40 years. But rather parties that appear and disappear, just as there is no loyalty from the candidates to the parties, which also change coalitions easily", explains Berti.
This whole scenario reinforces in voters the logic that candidates often reach an election without solid base or without a known party. This ends up generating a reading of distrust and, often, disbelief and fear of the ease with which these elected people can fall.
It is not difficult to imagine that the next elected president, if it is Sánchez, could face exactly the same pattern that brought down his predecessors - unless he manages to change this correlation of forces in Parliament.
Now, if Keiko is elected, according to Berti, perhaps there will be greater ease of governance, since her party has a majority in Congress. But, even so, he will have to deal with a political crisis in the country.
In light of all this, without a doubt, the biggest challenge will be convincing voters to leave home to vote and believe in Peruvian politics again.

Source: G1

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