USDA reduces global soybean forecast 2026/27

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) reduced its global soybean production estimate for the 2026/27 harvest from 441.54 million tons to 441.34 million tons. The revision represents a drop of 0.2 million tons, associated with the reduction in the area harvested in Russia.

Global supply and demand projections for 2026/27 indicate an increase in initial stocks, a slight reduction in production and an increase in ending stocks. The USDA attributes the increase in initial stocks mainly to the increase in production in Argentina in the previous cycle, which was revised by 2 million tons to 50 million tons.

In international trade, global exports remain unchanged. The drop in Russian exports was offset by an increase in Argentine exports. Global ending stocks were projected at 124.88 million tons, up 0.1 million tons from the previous estimate, mainly reflecting the increase in Argentine stocks.

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For the United States, the production projection was maintained at 120.7 million tons, as was the export estimate, at 44.36 million tons.

In the case of Brazil, the projections were also unchanged. Production was estimated at 186 million tons, with exports of 117.5 million tons and ending stocks of 37.39 million tons.

For China, the expectation is to import 114 million tons of soybeans in the 2026/27 harvest.

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Global corn production should be higher

The outlook for US corn in 2026/27 remains largely unchanged from last month.

The slightly higher opening and ending stocks for 2026/27 mainly reflect offsetting changes in trade and domestic consumption for 2025/26 with adjustments to imports.

The USDA revised global corn production to 1.3 billion tons in June, from 1.29 billion in the previous month. Final grain stocks were revised to 281.2 million tons, an increase compared to May, when the agency estimated 277.5 million tons.

Global corn exports total 207.6 million tons, compared to 206.9 million recorded in the previous month.

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The United States, the largest global producer of the grain, remains with production estimates unchanged at 406 million tons.

Ending stocks were slightly adjusted to 49.78 million tonnes, while exports remained unchanged at 80 million tonnes.

In Brazil, production remains at 139 million tons, while exports also remain at 44 million tons. Ending stocks were slightly adjusted to 11.1 million tons.

The largest exporters had slight adjustments in ending stocks, while production and exports remained unchanged at 256.3 and 111 million tons respectively.

Source: CNN