IMF maintains forecast for US GDP growth in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecast for the growth of the United States' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, but reduced projections for advanced economies and the euro zone. The numbers are part of the July update of the institution's Global Economic Perspectives (WEO), released this Wednesday (8).

According to the IMF, US economic growth should accelerate from 2.1% last year to 2.3% in 2026, in line with forecasts in the April report. In 2027, however, performance is expected to slow to 2.2%, slightly above the previous report's 2.1% projection.

In the case of the American economy, the report pointed out that investment by technology-related companies acted as a strong engine of growth, offsetting a rise in imports and a slowdown in consumer spending. According to the IMF, investments also contributed to a resumption of government spending compared to the previous quarter, after the end of the federal government shutdown.

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For advanced economies, the IMF projects a slowdown in growth to 1.7% this year and 1.8% next year, after an expansion of 1.9% in 2025. In April, the Fund projected 1.8% for 2026 and 1.7% for 2027. In the euro zone, the forecast is for a slowdown to 0.9% this year, followed by a recovery to 1.2% in 2027. In the previous report, the IMF projected a 1.1% increase in the region's GDP in 2026, with no changes for 2027.

Outcomes remain uneven within advanced economies. According to the IMF, energy exporters are partially supported by favorable terms of trade effects, while net energy importers are negatively impacted. The Fund expects fiscal policy in these countries to be broadly neutral in 2026, before becoming more restrictive later.

In turn, Japan's GDP is expected to slow down to 0.6% this year and 0.7% next year, after increasing 1.1% last year, according to the IMF report. In April, forecasts were for an increase of 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027. The Fund cites the intensification of the concentration of stock markets in stocks linked to artificial intelligence (AI), highlighting Japan as one of the markets with significant exposure to the sector.

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Source: CNN