AtlasIntel case turns research methodology into electoral battle

The suspension of an AtlasIntel survey by the president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Kassio Nunes Marques, transformed the electoral survey methodology into yet another chapter in the dispute for Palácio do Planalto. The decision, which responds to the request of the Liberal Party (PL) and questions the way in which the institute conducted the research, opens discussions around the role of the Electoral Court.

Nunes Marques ordered the suspension of the survey published on May 19th not due to formal registration failures, a more frequent reason in actions involving electoral research, but due to suspicions related to the methodology adopted and the possible induction of interviewees. According to the minister, the structure and application of the questionnaire may have influenced voters' perception and produced more negative responses in relation to senator and pre-candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

Among allies of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), there are those who classify the PL's attempt to remove the research from circulation as censorship and those who remember that the research has already been widely disseminated, under a kind of public domain now.

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For the pre-campaigns, attention turns to how far the TSE can advance in scrutinizing the methodologies used by the institutes and what type of precedent the decision could establish for new challenges throughout the 2026 presidential race.

The research was the first carried out after the revelation of conversations between Flávio Bolsonaro and Daniel Vorcaro, a former Master banker. The survey showed Lula's advance in voting intentions for the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro's fall and PT's advantage in a possible second round.

Flávio's allies argue that the survey contained questions considered problematic and claim that an audio released by Intercept Brasil involving the senator and Vorcaro had been played during the interview. In the assessment of Bolsonaro supporters, the content could have influenced the participants' opinion about the pre-candidate.

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AtlasIntel denies any inducement. The institute maintains that the audio was not part of the main questionnaire and was only presented at the end of the interview to participants who chose to record their reactions to the content. According to the company, interviewees could not return to previous questions or change answers already recorded.

In the decision, Nunes Marques highlights that previous AtlasIntel research did not follow the same format and cites statements by the institute's CEO, Andrei Roman. For the minister, Roman would have recognized the "political bias of the content submitted to the interviewees" and made a value judgment about the potential distress that the audio could cause to Flávio Bolsonaro. Roman's speeches took place after the research was carried out and publicly released.

The injunction requires AtlasIntel to present additional technical documentation. The Electoral Public Ministry must also comment on the case. The expectation is that the topic will be analyzed by the TSE plenary this Tuesday (9).

The episode gained even more repercussion due to the path taken within the Court itself. Less than a month after assuming the presidency of the TSE and a few days after the representation presented by the PL, Nunes Marques changed the distribution rule for electoral propaganda actions related to the presidential dispute. The change included the president of the court himself and minister André Mendonça - both appointed to the Federal Supreme Court by Jair Bolsonaro - among the possible rapporteurs of the processes.

After a new draw, the action against AtlasIntel was handled by Nunes Marques himself, who subsequently granted the injunction suspending the dissemination of the research.

The controversy also occurs at a more delicate time for Flávio Bolsonaro's pre-campaign. Since the release of the survey, other surveys have started to point to a loss of support for the senator.

Behind the scenes, the pre-candidate seeks to distance himself from Daniel Vorcaro and reposition his campaign, including a visit to the President of the United States, Donald Trump.

The TSE's decision, however, placed the relationship between Flávio and the former banker back at the center of this Monday. PT parliamentarians believe that the episode rekindles an issue that Flávio's campaign was trying to leave behind. Therefore, they point out that it could become a shot in the foot for the Bolsonarists themselves.

Nunes Marques pulled AtlasIntel research action before suspension | H TIME

Source: CNN