Peru has a fragmented political landscape different from the rest of the region; understand

The results of the second round of elections in Peru reveal, once again, a country deeply fragmented along political and socioeconomic lines, a scenario very similar to that of the 2021 elections, but with wounds that have worsened in recent years among marginalized sectors.

Pedro Castillo defeated Keiko Fujimori by a margin of just 50.1% that year, and this time the race between the Popular Force candidate and the leftist Roberto Sánchez is being decided again by a few tenths of a percentage point (as also occurred in 2016).

This will leave any eventual winner with little legitimacy and almost half of the population dissatisfied with the result.

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Polarization is no stranger to the rest of the region; on the contrary, it is the norm. However, in Peru, the lines that divide the population remain the same, with problems that persist unchecked over the years and that presidential and institutional instability make it practically impossible to resolve.

Anti-fujimorismo x fujimorismo
"Since 2011, the runoff campaign in Peru has boiled down to anti-fujimorismo versus fujimorismo," Peruvian analyst Elohim Monard, a political communication researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told CNN.

According to the professor, although right-wing and left-wing groups have clearly defined their support, there is "an undecided centrist group that recognizes that both candidacies are bad for the country."

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Continuing the authoritarian and populist legacy of the late Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), his eldest daughter reached the second round four times and hopes to win the Presidency this time.

"Fujimorism, the largest right-wing populist movement in Peru, has a resilient character, with a very broad social and political base, particularly strong in Lima and the north of the country. It tends to be very loyal," political scientist Gonzalo Banda, a doctoral researcher at University College London, told CNN.

The analyst indicated that there was a "revisionism" of the figure of Fujimori Sr., who died in 2024.

"I thought the funeral would be small, private, like that of all dictators. But no, it was a state funeral, he received honors, a public wake. He was buried with the smell of a huge crowd. This would not have been possible in Peru 10 years ago; society would not have tolerated it", he commented.

Keiko's own image has also changed over these 15 years, and the negative feeling around her is no longer as severe as before.

"This Keiko is very different; she praises her father as the best in history. She herself sowed his unpopularity.

Young people (who didn't experience Fujimori's father's presidency) have a negative image of Keiko because of her own decisions", he highlighted.

Regional Division
The results once again revealed two opposing worlds within the same country: the capital and regions, Lima and what is known as "deep Peru."

Despite countless promises from different presidents, the country has not taken concrete steps towards decentralization, and the capital continues to concentrate wealth (as has been the case since Peru was a colony), while some provinces, even those that should be reaping the rewards of mining royalties, remain far from development.

While Fujimori has some strongholds, such as the north coast, and is competitive in the jungle, Sánchez dominates the south, just as Castillo did in 2021 and Ollanta Humala in 2011.

Hernán Chaparro, social psychologist and professor at the Catholic University of Peru, explained that, in the country's medium-sized urban areas, "there is a greater concentration of poverty and a population with low levels of education", which impacts voting patterns.

"As they don't believe in any of the existing politicians, they end up making last-minute decisions, and it is often the speech of those excluded that ends up favoring candidates like Sánchez," he told CNN.

"What happened, more than a difference between left and right, which certainly exists, is a difference between Lima and the rest of the country," Patricia Zárate, senior researcher at the Institute of Peruvian Studies, told CNN after the first round, which already showed these patterns.

"Especially in the mountain region, because, if you look at the districts that voted most for Sánchez, it is the districts in the mountain region, not the provincial capitals, which are much more urban. So, there is an Andean component", added Zárate.

When more than 90% of the votes had already been counted, Fujimori obtained almost two-thirds of the votes in the capital. But in Puno, Sánchez won with 86%; in Apurímac, with 81%; and in Ayacucho, with 79%.

These are three regions where several of the nearly 50 deaths occurred during the repression of protests that followed the arrest of Pedro Castillo, who tried to dissolve Congress and was convicted of conspiracy to rebel.

For Monard, the south "does not forgive" that episode of social upheaval and even partially blames Fujimorism.

"After Pedro Castillo's coup, when there were riots, some parties in Congress, particularly Fujimori's, said nothing about the deaths; they were indifferent, if not actively fueling the problem", he said.

It was during these moments of outrage that then-president Dina Boluarte crystallized marginalization and inequality with a phrase that still resonates.

"Puno is not Peru," she said, trying to downplay the protests.

Peru's institutional instability, with a succession of presidents in the last decade, has also worn out the population and increased apathy.

"There is a certain lack of interest in politics, an electorate that starts to worry about the elections a week before and even decides the day before the vote", said the expert.

Weariness with political turmoil was also one of the themes of Fujimori's campaign. She promised order and, for the second round, she had a crucial advantage: a block in the Senate that, although not a majority, is enough to defend itself from an impeachment attempt.

Frustrated, indignant and fed up, the population is now preparing for weeks of waiting until the official announcement of the winner. The National Electoral Council announced that the declaration will be made in mid-July, a few days before the change of government.

Who is Keiko Fujimori, candidate for president of Peru

Source: CNN