Mercado financeiro eleva novamente estimativa de inflação em 2026 e vê corte menor de juros

The financial market once again raised its average estimate for inflation in 2026, which rose to 5.11%. This is the thirteenth consecutive week of increase.
Analysts also began to project a smaller interest rate cut this year (see below in this report).
The expectations are part of the "Focus Bulletin", released this Monday (8) by the Central Bank (BC), based on a survey carried out last week with more than 100 financial institutions.
The explanation is that the war in the Middle East caused the price of oil to soar - which operates, on this Monday, close to US$ 94 - and, therefore, This has the potential to put pressure on Brazilian inflation (via increases in fuel prices).
Now on g1
➡ For 2026, the estimate rose from 5.09% to 5.11%;
➡ For 2027, the expectation increased from 4.02% to 4.03%;
➡ For 2028, the forecast fell from 3.66% to 3.65%;
➡ For 2029, the estimate remained by 3.50%.
Since the beginning of 2025, with the adoption of the continuous target system, the objective has been to maintain inflation at 3%, with inflation being considered within the target if it varies between 1.50% and 4.50%.
Why does this matter? The higher the inflation, the lower the purchasing power of the population - especially among those receiving lower salaries. This is because prices rise, while wages do not keep up with this increase.
Inflation is not falling in Brazil and around the world at the pace desired by economists
Getty Images via BBC
Cut in interest rates
Even with an increase in inflation projections this year and in the coming years, the financial market continued to project a fall in interest rates.
Currently, the rate is at 14.50% per year - after two cuts this year.
The market estimate for the Selic rate at the end of 2026, however, rose from 13.25% to 13.50% per year in the last week, incorporating a smaller reduction in interest rates throughout this year.
For the end of 2027, the market projection went from 11.25% to 11.50% per year.
For the end of 2028, analysts' estimates remained at 10% per year.
Economic activity
For the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, the market estimate rose from 1.90% to 1.91%.
The official GDP result last year was an expansion of 2.3%, according to the official release of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
➡ The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country and serves to measure the performance of the economy.
For 2027, the GDP growth projection remained at 1.70%.
Exchange rate
The financial market lowered its estimate for the exchange rate at the end of this year from R$5.16 to R$5.15 per dollar.
For the end of 2027, the projection of bank economists fell from R$5.25 to R$5.20 per dollar.

Source: G1

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