Elections in Peru: understand in three points the possible scenarios of the dispute

The counting of votes in the second round of Peru's presidential elections takes place amid tension surrounding the result, with a small advantage for Keiko Fujimori over Roberto Sánchez in the exit polls.

The country, tired of political instability, voted in a divided manner and is preparing for days or weeks of tense waiting.

ONPE (National Office of Electoral Processes) recovered on Sunday (7) from the chaotic and criticized first round, with a day without major incidents or logistical problems. This time, with more caution, the authority did not promise a specific time for releasing updates on the vote count.

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But the political landscape remains shrouded in uncertainty: with the outcome still undecided, one thing is certain: no candidate will achieve the wave of legitimacy that a landslide victory would have conferred.

April's highly fragmented vote, in which no list reached 20%, did not lead to the formation of a grand coalition, but rather to a sharp polarization: both Fujimori and Sánchez are around 50%.

As the vote count progresses, there are key factors to monitor to determine how and in which direction the balance is tipping.

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The Geography of the Vote
The campaign and the electoral map showed a clear division between Lima and the rest of the country, or more specifically, between urban and rural areas.

The Ipsos/Perú21/Latina exit poll indicated that Fujimori obtained 66.1% in the capital (where almost a third of Peruvians live), while Sánchez won with 56.1% in the rest of the regions and secured 67.8% of the rural votes.

This difference is not as pronounced as in the dispute between Sánchez and the far-right candidate, Rafael López Aliaga.

Unlike the former mayor of Lima, the Força Popular candidate has a slightly more homogeneous electorate and has electoral strongholds in the north of the country (such as Piura and La Libertad), in addition to being competitive in other areas.

The significant advantage that Sánchez built throughout the count in April will be less significant in this second round. Additionally, the geographic analysis includes voting abroad, where Fujimori is expected to gain substantial support.

The election has many similarities to that of 2021, when Fujimori lost by a small margin to Pedro Castillo, now supported by Sánchez.

If only the national vote had been counted, Castillo would have won by more than 150,000 votes, but thanks to the vote abroad, which was largely in favor of Fujimori, the margin was only 44,000 votes.

Elections in Peru: Keiko Fujimori leads 2nd round with 50.7% of votes | CNN PRIME TIME

When do rural votes arrive?
The first votes counted come from the main urban centers, which are close to the counting centers of the 126 Decentralized Electoral Process Offices.

Thus, Fujimori started with an advantage, and Sánchez is betting that the difference will not increase enough to become insurmountable. When will Sánchez be able to close the gap to Fujimori? We'll have to wait and see.

The exact moment will depend on ONPE (National Office of Electoral Processes), but in terms of the percentage of votes counted, the comparison with the 2021 election is once again relevant, as the distribution of votes shows strong similarities with the dispute between Fujimori and Castillo.

In that year's second round, the first official results (with 42% of ballots counted) gave Fujimori an advantage of almost six percentage points (52.9%).

When the count reached 80%, Fujimori was still leading with 51.2%, although it had already reached its peak and was showing a downward trend.

At 90%, she maintained first position with 50.4%.

It was only at 92% of the count that Castillo surpassed the Fuerza Popular candidate, with 50.1%, a percentage that ended up being that obtained in the final result.

Although the numbers may change, if conditions are similar, this could indicate that Sánchez's rise would occur in the final phase of the count.

For example, if Fujimori maintains an advantage of at most two percentage points at 80%, this may not be enough to consider her the winner due to the distribution of polling stations that still need to be determined.

But it is in this final stretch that Fujimori will receive a small - and perhaps decisive - final boost, as many of the counting minutes from polling stations abroad are among the last to be counted.

Institutional Challenge
The electoral missions of the OAS and the European Union reported a "quiet" election day, which proceeded normally.

This order contrasted sharply with the problems of the first round, which forced the extension of voting until Monday in some polling stations in Lima that did not receive electoral material in time and placed ONPE (National Office of Electoral Processes) authorities under intense pressure.

The simplicity of a second round impacts the percentage of contested votes, which appears much lower than in April, when five simultaneous elections were held with 35 candidates, increasing the possibility of arithmetic errors on the part of polling station officials.

However, if the percentage remains close to 1.7%, which is the current level with half of the polling stations processed, this will become a factor that mathematically prevents the declaration of a winner.

For this reason, after voting ended, both parties urged their representatives to remain vigilant during the counting of votes, the most important part of the day.

Regarding the doubts about the process that multiplied in the first round, raised by the far-right candidate Rafael López Aliaga, who alleged fraud without presenting any evidence, the candidates remained calm.

Sánchez spoke of "unrestricted respect for the official results", and Fujimori echoed this sentiment, making the commitment: "Every vote needs to be counted: whatever the result, I will recognize it."

Such a narrow margin leaves room for any irregularity or complaint to mobilize the supporters of each candidate. Fujimori's statement resonates due to the contrast with the stance he adopted in 2021, when he never accepted defeat to Castillo.

After her claims were rejected, she stated, a few days before the winner's inauguration, that she would recognize the results "because that is what the law requires", but insisted that she was doing so "in light of Pedro Castillo's imminent and illegitimate proclamation".

The narrow margin of victory for whoever wins the election will leave a sword of Damocles hanging over their heads in a country accustomed to alternating presidents.

Although the size of the parliamentary bloc of the party that eventually governs and the alliances it forms are crucial for the sustainability of the mandate, governability will also depend on the legitimacy that they were unable to fully achieve at the polls, but that they can obtain outside of them.

But the scenario, to a greater or lesser extent, is repeating itself: Peru clings to any hope, with no prospect of improvement.

Who is Keiko Fujimori, candidate for president of Peru

Source: CNN