Use of antimicrobials in animals is expected to rise 30% by 2040

The use of antimicrobials in farm animals is expected to grow by almost 30% by 2040 in relation to the levels recorded in 2019. This is what a study shows, presented last week during the Fourth Session of the FAO Livestock Subcommittee, in Rome. The advance will be driven mainly by the expansion of global demand for proteins of animal origin and the intensification of production systems.

According to the FAO, although antimicrobials used as growth promoters offer productivity gains in the short term, especially in regions with limited access to veterinary services and biosecurity measures, the economic impacts of antimicrobial resistance tend to far outweigh these benefits over time.

The report points out that, in a scenario of high resistance to antimicrobials, accumulated losses for global livestock farming could reach US$318 billion by 2040. In comparison, a scenario of gradual elimination of antimicrobial growth promoters would generate losses estimated at around US$53 billion, a significantly lower value.

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In the assessment of Thanawat Tiensin, deputy director-general of FAO and head of the organization's Animal Health and Production Division, the costs of reducing unnecessary use of antimicrobials are often immediate and concentrated, while the benefits of preserving antimicrobial effectiveness are long-term and widely shared.

For the entity, the effectiveness of antimicrobials must be treated as a global public good. Therefore, policies capable of aligning producers' economic interests with the collective benefits of preserving these medicines, considered fundamental for both animal and human health, are necessary.

Investment to avoid greater losses

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FAO estimates that at least US$28.4 billion will be needed in transition investments to reduce dependence on antimicrobials in livestock production. The resources would be allocated mainly to expanding biosecurity on properties, vaccinating livestock, strengthening veterinary services, improving diagnostic systems and adopting non-antibiotic alternatives.

The report highlights that restricting the use of so-called antimicrobial growth promoters can cause initial impacts on productivity. However, these effects tend to be partially offset over time with the adoption of new technologies and better management practices.

The effects of antimicrobial resistance follow an opposite dynamic: initially barely noticeable, but increasing over the years, increasing production costs, reducing the efficiency of treatments and compromising the productivity of livestock systems.

Asia leads consumption; South America appears in second place

The FAO projection indicates that the Asia and Pacific region will continue to be the largest consumer of antimicrobials intended for animal production until 2040, accounting for around 65% of global consumption.

South America appears in second position, accounting for approximately 19% of global use. Africa, although it represents a smaller portion of the market, is expected to register one of the fastest growth rates in the consumption of these products.

The study also projects that global livestock production will increase by around 23% by 2040, driven mainly by the poultry and dairy sectors, which reinforces the need to balance productive gains with measures capable of containing the spread of antimicrobial resistance.

For FAO, the challenge cannot be resolved with regulation alone. The organization advocates the combination of economic incentives, sustainable financing, technical support for producers and market mechanisms that encourage the responsible use of antimicrobials, reducing risks to animal production and global food security.

Source: CNN