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The gap between the values transferred by the federal government and the real cost of civil construction puts at risk the delivery of more than 125 thousand housing units under the Minha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) program in the North and Northeast regions.
A detailed study, prepared by FNNIC (Forum North Northeast of the Construction Industry) in partnership with BCB Intelligence in Data, reveals that investments in excess of R$ 14.5 billion are under direct threat due to the financial unviability of current contracts.
The crisis is driven by inflation in basic inputs, which suffocates construction companies' budgets and compromises the continuity of works. The scenario became critical after a systemic shock in early 2026, with simultaneous readjustments in essential materials.
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According to the survey, the adjustment of just 3.53% recently applied to large municipalities in the Northeast is insignificant given the 14.3% increase in the real cost of the region and the jump of almost 36% recorded in the North Region, where logistical bottlenecks and expensive freight aggravate the situation.
The president of FNNIC, Marcos Antônio C. Buarque de Holanda, reinforces the gravity of the moment and the need for rapid intervention to guarantee the future of deliveries.
Toque agora.
"There is extreme concern and a need to readjust prices so that the works that are in progress are capable of meeting deadlines and do not hinder the result and the prospect of delivery of Minha Casa Minha Vida, as well as future contracts", he explains.
Holanda highlights that, despite the program's strategic advances, external factors have put pressure on budgets in an unpredictable way. "Things happen that are unexpected, such as, for example, this issue of the war in Iran which increased fuel prices and obviously this has an entire financial impact on the composition of the prices of inputs that are used in construction, and this undoubtedly has an impact on the composition of Minha Casa Minha Vida prices for construction companies."
The director of BCB Intelligence in Data, Bruno Cantalupo, emphasizes that stopping the program would have devastating effects that go beyond the housing issue, affecting the entire production chain and the economy of hundreds of municipalities.
"My House, My Life FAR goes far beyond a housing program. In the North and Northeast regions, it works as one of the main drivers of civil construction aimed at the low-income population and plays a fundamental role in reducing the housing deficit, which has historically been highly concentrated in these regions."
The expert also points to a perverse distortion in the current model, warning that cities that face greater operational challenges end up receiving fewer resources to produce housing, which reduces interest in new investments precisely where the shortage is most severe.
As a solution to avoid collapse, the study proposes to the Ministry of Cities the immediate adoption of the MCMV FAR Readjustment Index. This correction mechanism would be composed of 50% of the INCC-DI, 30% of the regional CUB and 20% of the IPCA, ensuring that the value of homes follows the market reality.
Rebalancing would require an investment of approximately R$2.57 billion, but the social and economic return would justify the expense. As detailed in the technical document, the cost-benefit relationship is clear, as each R$1.00 invested in rebalancing preserves around R$5.67 of housing investment already mobilized, ensuring that thousands of families receive housing.
Source: CNN
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