After recent tragedies, new El Niño tests Brazil's preparedness for extreme events

Extreme rain in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024, caused by overlapping climatic events, including El Niño
Renan Mattos/REUTERS via DW
A new episode of El Niño is already showing signs in the Pacific and could bring more rain to the South and drought to the North and Northeast. There are still doubts about the intensity of the phenomenon, amid the lack of preparation and adaptation in the country. From above, satellites and radars monitor the mass of warmer water that moves across the Pacific Ocean towards the coast of South America.
This monitoring, reinforced by buoys at sea, indicates a pattern already known to researchers: another El Niño is in the making. The main uncertainty now is about its intensity.
"The term 'super El Niño' is not exactly appropriate", says Tércio Ambrizzi, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of São Paulo (USP). "The tendency is for it to be moderate to strong", he comments on a certain consensus in the scientific community.
The phenomenon is usually identified when the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean, in the equatorial region, remains around 0.5 °C above normal for a prolonged period, generally at least three months. Since February, measurements have shown this increase in the region.
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Scientists are still awaiting confirmation of where the greatest warming will occur in the ocean. This factor will be decisive in defining how the impacts will be felt in Brazil.
"Compared to others in the past, it is possible that the first signs of this El Niño should appear in the South of Brazil during the spring, with more rain", says José Marengo, general coordinator of Research and Development at the National Center for Monitoring and Alerting of Natural Disasters (Cemaden).
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is a 90% probability of El Niño occur again this year. It can have strong intensity, which tends to worsen both droughts and intense rains, in addition to increasing the risk of heat waves on land and in the ocean.
"El Niño conditions will throw more fuel on the fire of a world that is warming and its impact will be even more severe, it will reach further and cross borders with devastating speed", warned the United Nations scientific body last Tuesday (02).
Between the end of April and mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific area used as a reference were already approaching typical El Niño levels. This scenario was reinforced by temperatures below the surface more than 6 ºC above average.
It is never the same
The possible emergence of a strong El Niño has sparked debates across the country. In the National Congress, sessions discuss whether its impacts could harm the population, the economy and agribusiness.
The next grain harvest, for example, is estimated at 356 million tons, which represents an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous harvest.
To DW, the Civil Defense of the Union, linked to the Ministry of Regional Development, reported that it monitors climate conditions daily in conjunction with states, municipalities and institutions such as Cemaden and the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet).
Conditions generated by El Niño can facilitate fires and impact agricultural production
Michael Dantas/AFP via DW
"There is still no precise prognosis on the impacts of the phenomenon. Therefore, action is focused on constant monitoring and advance preparation so that, if more critical situations are expected, the necessary alerts and measures are adopted in a timely manner", responded the agency, in a note.
If the phenomenon is confirmed, a worsening of the drought during the winter and early summer in some regions, such as the North - especially in the Amazon - and part of the Northeast. These conditions can favor fires and affect agricultural production. In the South, there is a forecast of increased rainfall.
"Each El Niño has its own fingerprint. It is never the same as the other", says Ambrizzi.

The most recent episode of El Niño occurred between 2023 and 2024 and was one of the five most intense recorded, which influenced the occurrence of record global temperatures.
The outskirts of Porto Alegre were hit hard by the events of 2024
Gustavo Basso/DW
The memory of the destruction caused by extreme rains in Rio Grande do Sul in 2024 is still fresh. That year, a combination of climatic events, including an intense El Niño, caused the worst flood in the state's history.
"Governments and authorities in general seem more concerned. But this alone is not enough. Even if the El Niño is not intense, the atmosphere is already warmer, there is already global warming, which should already be causing changes in a more systematic way", points out Marengo.
Absence or little preparation
In the most vulnerable communities, there is the perception that there was a lack of public investment to adapt and cope with rain or extreme droughts intensified by El Niño.
"The outskirts of cities are already suffering from the accumulated impacts of several disasters. We have almost nothing ready to adapt our communities to this scenario", says Thaynah Gutierrez, executive secretary of the Anti-Racist Adaptation Network, citing the outskirts of Porto Alegre, heavily hit by the events of 2024.
For experts in risk management, preparation for extreme weather events should not depend on confirming a specific phenomenon. It should be part of a continuous planning agenda.
Although there have been advances in raising awareness in public bodies, the private sector and civil society, the debate still tends to focus on what exactly will happen: whether there will be drought, intense rains or floods.
The focus, however, should be on building a permanent capacity for adaptation.
"More than reacting to each new alert, regardless of the occurrence of a specific event, territories must be prepared. The focus needs to be on the resilience of cities, infrastructure and of productive systems", suggests Victor Marchezini, sociologist at Cemaden and coordinator of the Organizational Capabilities for Preparedness for Extreme Events Project supported by the São Paulo State Research Support Foundation (Fapesp).
Dangerous alarmism
Another challenge is in risk communication. With the multiplication of meteorological analyzes on social networks - often produced by private consultancies and influencers with different interests - the population is exposed to conflicting information.
"This excess of messages can generate doubts about which forecasts are more reliable and which concrete measures should be adopted", criticizes the sociologist.
Graduated in public administration, Gutierrez follows the alarmism generated by forecasts, but states that the majority of the population does not access this type of content - except through videos that go viral on the internet.
"In general, governments and institutions lack situated knowledge of which territories are the most vulnerable. We want to talk about this in a responsible way and demand that governments prioritize these territories in preparation", he argues.
The responsibility for demanding investments and being accountable needs to be part of all spheres of government, as well as planning, adds Marchezini.
"This would allow, for example, the early execution of tenders and contracts for disaster response, reducing the need for emergency measures and extraordinary expenses when crises are already underway", he comments.
In light of the forecasts, Santa Catarina, for example, declared a state of climate alert, valid until November. At the same time, the state government practically paralyzed investments in disaster prevention, according to data from the Integrated Fiscal Planning and Management System (Sigef-SC), released by the state Legislative Assembly.
In 2025, only 15.4% of the resources foreseen in the budget of the Secretariat of Civil Defense and Protection were executed.

The volume allocated to the construction, expansion and renovation of dams was even smaller: only 0.66% of the total was committed.
"It is worth remembering that we are in an election year. We cannot continue electing these politicians who will use the resources that should go to preparing and adapting to extreme events for diversions", comments Gutierrez.

Source: G1

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