Brazil off the list of EU exporters: expert analyzes risks

The European Commission published an update to the regulations that changes the conditions for the import of animals and products of animal origin intended for human consumption in the bloc.

Brazil remains outside the list of countries considered capable of meeting the new European requirements related to the use of antimicrobials in animal production. The decision raises concern among agents in the production chain and could have significant consequences for meat trade with one of the main import markets in the world.

In an interview with Agora CNN, Fernando Henrique Iglesias, market analyst at Safras & Mercado, explained what is at stake and what are the main obstacles faced by Brazil in adapting to European requirements.

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What Europe demands from Brazil
According to Iglesias, Brazil needs to deliver complete documentation that proves the traceability of the entire production chain. "What Europe is asking for, is asking Brazil, is control of all stages from the birth of this animal to slaughter", explained the analyst.

The big problem, according to him, is that not all regions of the country meet these conditions, especially in the beef cattle sector. "Most likely some Brazilian states, if not all, will be unable to export beef from September 3rd," he warned.

For other sectors, the scenario is less worrying. Iglesias highlighted that, for poultry and beekeeping, the process tends to be simpler and faster, which makes it more likely that Brazil will maintain the flow of exports of chicken meat and honey to the European bloc. Furthermore, the European Union allowed each sector to negotiate separately, which opens up space for at least part of the production chain to adapt within the deadline.

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Economic impact and the September deadline
From an economic point of view, Iglesias highlighted that there is still no immediate impact, since the suspension only comes into force from September 3rd. However, the affected animal products represent around US$1.7 billion in annual exports, which raises the prospect of a significant reduction in the volume exported to the bloc. "It will make access very difficult," said the analyst.

The analyst also drew attention to Europe's role as a global reference. "Europe is what we call a showcase market. The rest of the world ends up mirroring European decisions," said Iglesias. He cited as a recent example the suspension of exports from four Brazilian meatpacking plants to China, motivated by the presence of certain veterinary drugs, as a sign that European decisions can influence other important markets.

Technical protectionism and geopolitical disputes
When asked whether the decision had a more political than technical background, Iglesias stated that the two dimensions coexist. According to him, regulation on antimicrobials is not something new - Europe has been working on this regulation for the past decade and has given time for suppliers to adapt. However, the analyst was direct in pointing out the protectionist component: "They are using this to protect local production, that is evident. Europe is unable to compete with the product that comes here from South America, especially Brazil."

Iglesias also highlighted the difference in production costs: while a fat beef price in Brazil is around US$70, in the European Union the same product costs between US$110 and US$120. For him, the meat has become an asset in geopolitical disputes, involving China, the European Union and the United States. "There is much more to these trade disputes than simply supply and demand, as we see in other markets," he concluded.

Challenges for slaughterhouses and paths forward
When analyzing the impact on the main Brazilian slaughterhouses listed on the stock exchange, Iglesias assessed that MBRF, with a focus on poultry and pig farming, should be able to maintain a relevant flow of chicken exports.

The Minerva meatpacking company would have operations in Uruguay and Argentina as an alternative, making it less vulnerable. For JBS, in the Brazil operation, the scenario could be more complicated, especially given the exhaustion of the Chinese quota and European restrictions.

The analyst emphasized that Brazil urgently needs to consolidate a strategy to deliver pending documentation and demonstrate which regions are able to meet European conditions. "It's not simple, it's not simple measures, it's not a simple situation to resolve, and we basically have three months to resolve this issue," said Iglesias. For him, joint work between industry and the Brazilian government will be necessary to find a diplomatic solution and keep products of animal origin on the European market.

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Source: CNN