Mexico's economy could surpass OECD forecast, says Mexican government

Mexico's economy could grow more than the latest forecast from the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), said Finance Minister, Edgar Amador Zamora, in an interview with the newspaper Milenio published on Wednesday night (4), arguing that the expected increase in public investment and government measures to contain inflation will boost economic activity.

The OECD now forecasts Mexico's economy to grow by 0.8% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, although it warned that growth would be hampered by trade tariffs, slowing US growth, global uncertainty and fiscal consolidation, factors that would keep public investment contained.

Amador told Milenio that the more pessimistic forecasts were not limited to Mexico and reflected a broader impact of higher energy costs associated with geopolitical conflicts.

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He said the government had an investment package worth more than 700 billion pesos ($40.50 billion) for the coming months, focused on infrastructure, including roads, ports and electricity generation, which he said would boost activity from this quarter onwards.

The OECD outlook for Latin America, however, indicated that Mexico's economy weakened sharply in early 2026, while private investment remained weak and public spending was constrained by efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit.

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The OECD also said Mexico's growth prospects remained clouded by uncertainty surrounding trade with the United States, noting that exports outside sectors such as computer equipment were likely to be hurt by tariffs and slowing American demand.

Amador said international forecasts had previously underestimated Mexico. "It wouldn't be the first time," he said. "Last year, we were told we were going into recession and we ended up growing by almost 1%."

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Source: CNN