Expert reflects the fall of the Ibovespa and the rise of the dollar

The dollar closed up more than 1% on Wednesday (3), quoted at R$5.06, while the Ibovespa fell 2.22%, ending the session at 170,331 points. The market movement reflects investors' concern about the proposal of new surcharges on Brazilian products by the United States.

Columnist Gilvan Bueno analyzed, on CNN Novo Dia, the behavior of indices and explained the mechanisms that lead the market to react in advance to this type of scenario. According to him, the stock market works as a thermometer of investors' expectations regarding the future of companies.

Commodity-linked stock market suffers direct impact
Gilvan Bueno highlighted that the structure of the Brazilian stock exchange makes it particularly vulnerable to this type of external pressure. "Our exchange is directly linked to companies that produce commodities, ore, oil, steel, cellulose," he stated. These sectors were already facing difficulties due to double-digit interest rates, which had been impacting companies' profitability.

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The columnist highlighted that, in the year to April, the Ibovespa rose by more than 23%. However, following recent events related to US tariffs, this gain fell to approximately 5%. "When mechanisms that prove to be very deconstructive in the construction of companies' value emerge, increasing their costs and impacting their profitability, investors begin to anticipate and look for new assets", explained Bueno.

Uncertainty in negotiations puts pressure on exchange rates and future interest rates
When asked about the prospects for possible negotiations between the countries involved, Gilvan Bueno assessed that the lack of clarity in negotiations is one of the main factors of instability. He cited a conversation with Roberto Azevedo during Brasil Week, in New York, an event that brought together investors, businesspeople and consultants. According to Bueno, Azevedo would have stated that the Trump administration negotiates a lot, but is not assertive in communication, which makes it difficult for the parties involved to understand.

For Bueno, this uncertainty translates directly into impacts on the dollar, the stock market and future interest rates, influencing the decisions of businesspeople. "The negotiations are not clear. What should be done is to continue visiting both countries, talking and trying to reduce the impacts, using less open means of communication and having the famous conversations in earshot", concluded the columnist.

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Source: CNN