Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to end the oil crisis quickly

Commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman in May 2026.
REUTERS/Stringer
The US and Israeli war against Iran is about to complete 100 days amid negotiations to end the conflict and increased pressure from the US Congress under President Donald Trump.
Many politicians, businesspeople and investors believe that a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz- through which it passes about 20% of the world's oil - will quickly drive down energy prices as currently-stranded oil and gas ships may finally leave the Persian Gulf.
However, oil industry executives, shipping industry leaders and economists predict otherwise: Peace will not immediately return energy markets and global supply chains to normal. They say the impacts could last for many months - or even years.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, the Gulf's biggest oil supplier, told investors last month that even if the Strait of Hormuz were reopened immediately, "it would take months for the market to rebalance." If the closure lasted a few more weeks, he added, normalization could extend into 2027.
Iran releases images of attack speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz
Traffic through the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman remains at a fraction of normal levels despite a fragile ceasefire and peace talks that have faced repeated setbacks.
Oil prices remain about 30% above pre-war levels, holding gasoline, diesel and significantly more expensive fertilizers. These additional costs are putting pressure on global inflation, disrupting supply chains and raising food prices around the world as fertilizers rise.
Irregular reopening of Hormuz
Even if a peace deal is signed, experts say shipping companies will need to regain confidence to send crews back to the region. This may require an observation period of 30 to 45 days. It will also be necessary to establish security measures, including international naval patrols, to protect against possible sporadic attacks on vessels.
Shipowners and crews remain highly cautious due to the persistence of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. In the last week alone, several vessels have been hit, according to the CEO of energy giant Chevron, Mike Wirth, who said the reopening will likely occur "intermittently." London, the world's leading marine insurance market, has seen a sharp rise in war risk premiums for crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, which remain high even after the ceasefire, which began on April 8.
Once Hormuz is deemed safe, the many oil tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf will also need to exit safely, while other ships will depart from distant ports to pick up new shipments. "The process could take eight weeks, or even longer, depending on the timing of each stage," he warned. Crosby.
Trapped by Strait of Hormuz blockade for nearly 100 days: 'There's only one way out'
Infrastructure damage prolongs impacts
Physical damage to the Gulf region's energy infrastructure represents another major delay factor. Dozens of oil fields, pipelines, refineries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities were hit. Repair costs were estimated in April at between 25 billion and 58 billion dollars, according to consultancy Rystad Energy.
The Ras Laffan complex, in Qatar, was the most affected: Iranian attacks eliminated 17% of the country's LNG capacity.

Qatari authorities warn that repairs could take three to five years.
LNG producers could also spend years resolving contractual disputes over missed deliveries, with delays that could affect transportation schedules until 2027, according to lawyers consulted by S&P Global Platts.
Other energy facilities could take weeks or months to return to operation, due to the need for rigorous safety testing, the impacts of long shutdowns and shortages of spare parts. replacement, which was already a problem before the conflict. Facilities that have been shut down since March accumulate pressure, debris and possible corrosion processes, requiring careful inspections before being brought back into operation to avoid accidents.
Trump says he must reach agreement to extend ceasefire with Iran and reopen Hormuz next week
Energy shortages could worsen
For Crosby, a "supply problem" could emerge by the summer in the northern hemisphere, as other regions of the global oil market are currently temporarily compensating for the lack of oil supply. Gulf.
Since the start of the war, the United States has increased oil production to record levels; China reduced its imports by 3.5 million barrels per day, using strategic reserves; and member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) also tapped their stocks. However, these measures are not sustainable.
US oil stocks are expected to reach dangerously low levels in the coming months, while China will need to resume imports, competing with the rest of the world for limited supply.
IEA director Fatih Birol warned that while pre-war oversupply helped cushion the initial shock, the oil market could enter a "critical zone" as early as July or August due to falling inventories.
"When the stocks start to run out, the only solution will be to increase prices, because only higher prices can actually reduce demand", said Crosby. According to the expert, prices could even double, warning that this path could lead to a global recession.
USA sanctions body created by Iran to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz

Source: G1

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