Tariff: Opening is a bet against dependence, but the country must still move forward

The federal government has carried out an offensive over the last few years in the international market to expand the country's commercial openness.

One of the spokespersons for this mission, the Secretary of Foreign Affairs of the Ministry of Agriculture, Luis Rua, highlights to the report that "opening markets is creating opportunities".

"The strategy adopted by Brazil, of expanding and diversifying markets, means there is no dependence on any specific market. It means more exports, more income, more destinations for Brazilian products and less dependence on a few buyers", points out Rua.

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In agribusiness alone - one of the main weights of the country's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and trade balance - the reach increased from 555 markets at the end of 2025 to 616 currently.

And in this sense, Rua is emphatic: "the results are already appearing". According to the secretary, the country reaps more than US$5 billion in exports associated with the new markets conquered, in addition to generating opportunities for cooperatives, small and medium producers to increasingly participate in international trade.

And in a context of possible new tariffs from the United States against Brazil, the country's trade openness becomes even more critical.

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National security
"The Brazilian government is developing a series of actions and programs to increase Brazilian exports of industrial goods", states the Mdic (Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services) in a note to the report.

Among the initiatives, the department highlights the NIB (New Industry Brazil) industrial policy, credit lines from BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) and Banco do Brasil, international missions and consultancy, prospecting and exchanges permanently developed by ApexBrasil (Brazilian Export and Investment Promotion Agency).

The federal government, within the scope of Mercosur, participated in the closing of three free trade agreements in recent years: with Singapore, with the EU (European Union) and with the European bloc Efta (European Free Trade Association).

The South American bloc is still targeting negotiations with Mexico, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and countries in Central America (such as El Salvador and Panama) and Asia (India and Japan).

Trade openness is no longer just a question of economic efficiency and has also become a national security issue, because it involves supply chains, technology, data, energy, food and strategic autonomy, according to Welber Barral, WTO (World Trade Organization) arbitrator and former Secretary of Foreign Trade.

"Trade opening today needs to be thought of together with resilience, diversification and institutional defense capacity. The question is not choosing between opening or protecting, but opening with intelligence, reducing excessive dependencies and preserving room for maneuver for the country", points out the advisor and founding partner of BMJ.

The experts interviewed by the report highlight, however, that Brazil still has to evolve on this front.

Brazil among the most closed economies in the world
"Brazil is among the most commercially closed economies in the world, both in terms of proportions of exports and imports in GDP, as well as the size of tariffs and non-tariff barriers", says Otaviano Canuto, former World Bank, IMF (International Monetary Fund) and IDB (Inter-American Development Bank).

With the 2.3% increase recorded in 2025, the country ended last year with a GDP of around US$2.268 trillion. Meanwhile, exports totaled US$348.7 billion, equivalent to 15.4% of the wealth generated by Brazil in the period.

"If you refer to the diversification of bilateral trade, it has improved in the most recent period. But it remains commercially closed", points out Canuto.

In cases of shocks - such as tariffs -, the country "cannot quickly reallocate its exports", warns Barral.

"A country with a larger network of agreements would have more capacity to absorb the shock; in the Brazilian case, the transition tends to be slower.

The most likely effect could be pressure on exports, margins and competitiveness, forcing Brazil to accelerate diversification, agreements and foreign insertion strategies", highlights the former Secretary of Foreign Trade.

In the context of the measures applied by the USA in 2025, the government launched two stages of the Sovereign Brazil Plan, in which the resources made available can also be used to diversify the destination of exports, according to the Mdic.

New round of tariffs should survive legal challenges, says Mandel | MONEY NEWS

New tariffs
The episode, which seemed to be over after, in February, the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs announced by Trump in 2025 are illegal, returned to the government and private sector's radar this week with new tariffs signaled by the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative).

On Monday night (1st), the US body proposed the imposition of new tariffs of 25% on all imports from Brazil, except for goods that qualify as "subject to national security tariffs", within the scope of Section 301 of the US Trade Law - a trade policy tool that allows the US to investigate and retaliate against other nations against trade practices considered unfair.

The USTR determined that Brazilian government policies on digital trade, preferential tariffs, combating corruption, patent processing and piracy, ethanol and illegal deforestation generate legal uncertainty and unfair competition for US players.

The following night, he proposed the imposition of additional tariffs on products from Brazil and 59 other economies that had failed to take measures against trade in goods derived from forced labor.

The government mobilized to contest the US allegations and articulated, together with the private sector, a response to the lawsuits filed by the USTR.

In parallel, the Executive published on Wednesday (3) an ordinance expanding the service of the Sovereign Brazil Plan, including companies with an impact of 1% or more on gross revenue due to tariffs or the war in the Middle East.

Still, the experts interviewed by the report highlight the need for the country to continue improving its trade openness.

"After the war in Ukraine and the pandemic, we know that we cannot trust just one country. At no point am I speaking ill of this or that country, but countries are subject to pandemics, civil unrest and [wars]", ponders Roberto Dumas, professor of Economics at Insper and chief strategist at GCB.

In addition to diversifying partners, Dumas points to the need to shorten foreign trade distances when looking, for example, at the shock caused by the war in the Middle East in countries that depend on products that cross the Strait of Hormuz.

In this sense, Luis Rua states that the country "will follow a constant strategy of opening and expanding markets", including "with new announcements scheduled for next week".

Does trade opening reduce the impact of Trump's tariffs in Brazil? Understand

Source: CNN