Lula adopts anti-American stance amid pre-campaign, says Eurasia

To WW, Christopher Garman, executive director of Eurasia Group, stated that he does not believe that there is significant room to negotiate a reduction in the tariffs proposed by the United States on Brazil.

Garman assessed that the American decision was, to a large extent, already taken, and that it would be up to the Brazilian government to offer concessions to avoid the recomposition of taxes.

Tariff context
The 25% tariff proposal came from the USTR after the US Supreme Court struck down the AIPA instrument globally.

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According to Garman, the 301 type investigations were opened precisely to restore the tariffs that had been overturned.

"The tariff that was dropped in Brazil was 40%; 10% was left, and the USTR proposed replacing 25%", he explained.

In his assessment, the American government, in practice, partially reduced the previous taxation by not replacing the full amount.

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For him, if analyzed from a certain perspective, what the USTR and the American government did was an "escalation" in relation to the tariff regime that was in force before the American Supreme Court's decision.

Lack of concessions on the Brazilian side
Garman highlighted that the Brazilian government did not present relevant concessions during the negotiation process.

Among the points mentioned, he mentioned the lack of adherence to a critical minerals agreement, which was one of the interests of the American government.

"In the absence of greater concessions, the decision for this partial recomposition came about", he stated.

In his analysis, the inertia of the process pointed to some form of tariff recomposition, and the initiative to avoid it fell to Brasília.

Election and anti-American rhetoric
The analyst also pointed to the electoral calendar as a complicating factor for the negotiations.

According to him, the closer Brazil gets to the electoral period, the more difficult it becomes to advance trade agreements.

Garman drew attention to the rhetoric adopted by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in light of the announcement of the tariffs.

"Of course he said he was surprised, that it's a shock, but that's a bit of rhetoric to get domestic support and a more anti-American stance," he said.

For the analyst, this stance is directly linked to the pre-campaign for the presidential elections.

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Source: CNN