Exporters minimize US investigation and rule out immediate impact

The use of Brazilian beef as one of the main examples of the investigation into forced labor opened by the United States did not generate immediate concern among exporters in the sector.

The investigation conducted by the USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative) suggests the application of surcharges in the case of forced labor in production chains in investigated countries, ranging from 10% to 12.5%. But Brazilian beef was also left out of this list of products from the 60 countries investigated.

For the sector, this exclusion demonstrates the importance of the Brazilian product for the US food industry, which is currently experiencing a historic herd reduction and needs to import meat.

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Exporters interviewed by CNN in a reserve condition assess that possible commercial restrictions against the product would have the potential to increase costs for the American industry and put pressure on consumer prices in the United States.

The reading is that the proposal has a strong political component and is part of a broader movement to try to contain the advancement of the competitiveness of Brazilian agribusiness in international markets, such as China, where Brazil placed the majority of world exports last year.

Despite the criticism, practically the entire beef chain was left out of the list of products that could be affected by the measures proposed by the American government, with the new 25% tariff.

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The annex of exceptions includes fresh, chilled and frozen cuts, bone-in and boneless meats, beef offal and various processed products.

In the evaluation of sources linked to exports, the decision is directly related to the situation of American livestock.

The United States is going through a period of cattle herd reduction, which has reached the lowest levels in decades, while domestic demand remains high.

In this context, Brazilian meat plays an important role in the American processing industry.

According to members of the sector, an important part of the product exported by Brazil is used to compose mixtures intended for the production of ground beef and hamburgers, as Brazilian meat is leaner and helps to balance the fat of the locally produced raw material.

In the view of exporters, a possible restriction on Brazilian meat would have a direct impact on the costs of the American industry and could worsen existing pressures on consumer prices.

The interpretation is that the exclusion of animal protein demonstrates that the American government recognizes the importance of the product for domestic supply.

Representatives of the export chain also dispute the idea that restrictions on Brazilian exports would result in a greater supply of meat on the domestic market. The explanation is that exports help to economically sustain the volume of slaughter carried out by slaughterhouses.

The assessment of exporters is that Brazilian competitiveness arises mainly from structural factors, such as land availability, grain production, production scale and lower costs compared to international competitors.

For this reason, industry interlocutors claim that possible trade measures would hardly alter Brazil's position as the world's largest exporter of beef.

Behind the scenes, the perception is that the American investigation must be monitored closely, but without alarmism. The understanding is that there is still room for negotiation and that recent history shows that proposals announced by the American government may undergo changes before implementation.

The investigation conducted by the USTR and the trade measures proposed by the American government are still under public consultation.

A new meeting is scheduled for July 6th and the official effective date for what is stated in the report is July 15th.

For the export sector, however, the exclusion of beef from the list of potentially affected products reinforces the assessment that the practical impacts on Brazilian protein tend to be limited in the short term.

Source: CNN