Could the US tariff on Brazilian tilapia make the fish cheaper in Brazil? Understand

USA proposes 25% tariff on Brazilian goods to punish 'unreasonable' practices
Tilapia was left out of the list of exceptions to the 25% tariff proposed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) for Brazilian products. The measure was announced on Monday (1st) and could come into force on July 15th.
➡ But, after all, could the Brazilian consumer be affected? Not directly. The tariff will be paid by US companies that buy Brazilian products.
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Tilapia is the most exported Brazilian fish, and the USA is the destination for 90% of the volume sold abroad. Dependence on the American market is much greater than that observed in sectors such as meat and coffee, which have other relevant buyers.
Despite this dependence, exports represent only around 2.1% of all Brazilian tilapia production, according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat.
Therefore, even if exports decline and more fish becomes available on the domestic market, the volume would not be enough to cause a significant drop in prices, says Matheus Do Ville Liasch, a market analyst for tilapia at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea/USP).
According to the researcher, Brazilian exports were growing and gaining relevance. Still, they remain small in relation to the domestic market and do not have the strength to change prices significantly.
For Francisco Medeiros, president of the Brazilian Fish Farming Association (PeixeBR), there may be some drop in prices in regional markets, but not on a national scale.
The new tariff was proposed after the conclusion of an investigation opened in July 2025 by order of President Donald Trump, based on Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Law.
Second According to the document, the measure is justified because a series of acts, policies and practices of the Brazilian government would be "unreasonable" and would "encumber or restrict" US trade.
See which Brazilian products should be left out of the 25% tax proposed by the US
Where does what I eat come from: tilapia
Why wasn't tilapia exempt?
Unlike products such as meat and coffee, on which the US depends to a greater extent, tilapia has other suppliers relevant to the American market, says Liasch. According to data from Cepea, Brazil ranks fourth among exporters to the USA, behind China, Colombia and Indonesia.
In addition, around 80% of the American tilapia market is made up of frozen fillet, while Brazil exports mainly fresh fillet, according to Medeiros.
Last year, Trump had already imposed two tariffs that were annulled by the US Supreme Court in February 2026.
the so-called 10% reciprocal tariffs, announced in April last year.
the 40% surcharge on several Brazilian items, announced by Trump in a letter sent to President Lula, in July 2025.
According to the president of PeixeBR, these tariffs reduced the profitability of tilapia producers, who absorbed part of the cost to avoid a drop in sales. Even so, Brazilian exports to the USA fell 43.7% in the second half of 2025.
In the same period, Brazil increased tilapia exports to Canada. But Liasch states that opening new markets is a long-term strategy and Brazil must remain dependent on the USA to export fish.
For Medeiros, it is still too early to measure the impacts of the measure.

According to him, it will be necessary to assess whether Brazil's competitors, such as Colombia, will also be targeted by tariffs.
Eduardo Lobo, president of the Brazilian Association of Fish Industries (Abipesca), highlights that tilapia is not among the products directly mentioned in the investigation conducted based on Section 301. 25% tariff
Food and agricultural products
Beef: fresh cuts, chilled or frozen, bone-in or boneless, including carcasses and high-quality cuts, as well as offals, canned meat and dried or smoked meat;
Seafood and derivatives: corals, shells and similar materials.
Vegetables and fungi: chayote, bamboo shoots, water chestnuts, wood ears and dried shiitake mushrooms.
Roots and tubers: cassava (fresh, frozen or dried), taro, mangaras (yautia), jicama, arrowroot.
Fruits: Tomatoes (fresh or refrigerated), coconuts (dehydrated, fresh, with or without shell), breadfruit, bananas, plantains, pineapples, avocados, Guavas, durians, mangoes, oranges, lemons, papayas, kiwis, etrogs.
Nuts: coconuts, Brazil nuts, cashews, macadamias.
Coffee and other stimulants: roasted, unroasted coffee, decaffeinated or not, green tea, black tea, yerba mate.
Beverages and stimulants: coffee (beans, roasted, shells and substitutes), teas (green and black), yerba mate and cocoa (beans, paste, butter and powder).
Cocoa and derivatives: beans, shells, paste, butter and unsweetened cocoa powder.
Spices: Pepper, vanilla, cinnamon, cloves, nutmeg, ginger, saffron and turmeric.
Processed products: Cassava starch, tapioca, juices of fruits (orange, lemon, pineapple and açaí) and açaí preparations.
Natural resources, minerals and fuels
Ores: iron ore, manganese, copper, nickel, cobalt, aluminum, zinc, tin, chromium, tungsten, uranium, titanium and silver.
Minerals: natural graphite, kaolin, calcium phosphates, barium sulfate (barite), magnesite and asbestos.
Energy and fuels: coal (anthracite and bituminous), coke, coal gas, petroleum oils (crude and refined), kerosene, lubricants, liquefied natural gas, propane, butane and electrical energy.
Chemicals, Fertilizers and Medicines
Industrial chemicals: iodine, silicon, arsenic, selenium, zinc oxides and titanium, and various organic and inorganic compounds.
Fertilizers: urea, ammonium sulfate, sodium nitrate, potassium chloride and phosphate fertilizers.
Health and Pharmaceuticals: vaccines (human and veterinary), human blood, antisera, toxins, antibiotics (penicillins, streptomycins, tetracyclines, etc.), hormones (insulin, cortisone, estrogens), vitamins, chemical contraceptives and clinical trial kits.
✈ Aerospace Sector and other industrial items
Engines and parts: piston engines, turbojets, turboprops and their parts.
Flight components: propellers, rotors, landing gears and fuselages.
Internal equipment: aircraft seats, breathing apparatus, black boxes (flight data recorders) and air navigation instruments (autopilots and compasses).
Miscellaneous materials: plastic tubes, rubber tires, sealing gaskets and laminated safety glasses, as long as they are intended for use in aircraft.
Wood: teak, mahogany, balsa and ferrule (in logs or sawn).
Paper and cellulose: chemical wood pulp and various paper products.
Precious metals: gold, silver and platinum (in raw or manufactured forms).
Technology: Machines for manufacturing semiconductors, electronic integrated circuits and processors.

Source: G1

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